Saturday, October 31, 2009

My Halloween Birthday Brewers Blog

So it's my B-day, and yes, it's Halloween. In celebration I'm going to randomly talk about some stuff that I would be interested in seeing, trade ideas I may have, and talk about some players that I like.

Mike Cameron-
I like Mike. I hope to see him back in Center next year, but hopefully at a reduced rate (5 mil?) Here is something to think about for Mike. This season he became I believe just the 20th player in the history of the game to hit 250HR and steal 250 bases. Cam only needs 6 more SB, and if he hits just 35 more bombs, he could become just the seventh player ever to do that. To me that is a Hall of Fame career.

Jonathan Lucroy-
This kid can hit, and has seemingly passed Angel Salome on the depth charts to be the Brewers' number one catching prospect. In a story recently on Brewers.com Lucroy said, "I'm not going to settle for being in the Minor Leagues next year..." I'm apposed to bringing back Kendall, and would like to see Angel and Jonathan slug it out in Spring Training, with Rivera backing up once again.


David Bush-
Not a bad guy to throw into a trade somewhere. He has done a nice job of giving the Brewers some innings the last few seasons, but I think his time is over. Gallardo and Suppan are for all intensive purposes locks for the rotation, and it's too early to give up on Parra, there is Narveson and Burns for depth, and GM Doug Melvin is looking to pick up 2 arms this off season. Bye Bye Bushy. He's coming off a poor season but has been durable in the past, trade him for whatever, somebody has to want him...

Craig Counsell-
I'm ready for one more season of Craig. He can't take too much to bring back, and I kind of doubt he wants to play anywhere else. He still picks it at 3 defensive positions, and with his new found hitting ability can contribute at the dish.


This season could actually be pretty damn good. This off season could hypothetically get pretty crazy, and I don't know if Melvin is up for it, but it could kinda get nuts. We have all sorts of people available for trade. J.J. Hardy is one of the more prized SS available and should net something decent. Matt Gamel is a top notch prospect that could now be expendable. Bush is somebody that could go. Hypothetically one of our catching prospects could go. We need two starters and a center fielder... get crazy, have some fun with it. Giants need a 1B and a SS... maybe we could pry away one of those fine starters they have...

That's it for now. Happy Birthday to me. Brew Up.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Brewers and Washburn?

Sorry about the lack of articles, been far too busy lately... Here is another idea floating around.

The Brewers will be players for Jarrod Washburn.

Tom Hardicourt over at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had some interesting points on this one.

Washburn is a Wisconsin native, maybe interested in returning home. The Brewers apparently made a large effort to acquire him this year at the trade deadline. Brewers want two arms, likely one from free agency and one via a trade.

There are of course plenty of issues. Washburn is a Scott Boras client. So is Fielder and GM Doug Melvin has worked with him before, but still, Boras is known to be an elite, money grabbing agent. Jarrod had a nice season this year. An ERA under 3 in 20 starts for the Mariners. Not so much after his trade to Detroit though... He's a ground ball pitcher, meaning the defense needs to be (and ours hasn't been) good. He is getting old. Some people will say this looks like a left-handed Jeff Suppan.

What will it take to get him? This off season isn't exactly teaming with awesome free agent starters, so Washburn might be up there. Even though he's old you have to imagine looking for something like a 3 year deal. Maybe pushing 7-8 million a year... Unless he is willing to sign in the 4-6 range/year for two years I hope this one doesn't happen. Hopefully Melvin has learned from the Suppan nightmare and won't go so long (and much) on an aged pitching coming off a good season.

I personally don't see it happening. Though I typically say that for just about every trade or signing involving the Brewers... I'm also going to guess he signs for something like 3 years 19 million.

It for now. Have fun watching Pedro throw game 2 tonight. Brew Up.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Hardy for Morrow?

Hey Everyone,

Interesting idea I've heard shuffled around, not a rumor, just an idea. This was brought up by Dave Cameron of Seattle and has been repeated now by a couple other sources.

J.J. Hardy for Braden Morrow

The Mariners need a shortstop. They could get two years of Hardy for a decent price. Brewers desperately need pitching depth. They could get four years of Morrow, one year at super cheap.

It helps that current Mariners GM Zduriencik was the scouting director in Milwaukee when the Brewers drafted Hardy.

Both are coming off of down years. Hardy should still pan out as a plus SS, and the free agent market is not exactly awesome. Morrow has shown flashes of brilliance and can hopefully still pan out in the rotation. New 'Crew pitching coach Peterson may be able to help that out.

I like the idea. I would prefer a more established starter, but the idea of four years of control for very little price makes it extremely tempting. Thoughts?

Brew Up.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

2009 Minor League Awards - AAA

Here they are. I think I'll pan them out over the course of a couple posts, it will give me time to think them out and can provide filler to when there isn't much going on. AAA right now.

Well, not the best year ever for AAA Nashville. The Sounds played pretty good ball, especially considering 2008's dismal 59-81 record. However as many of us know the Brewers are somewhat low on upper level depth, and the AAA roster shows it. Lots of fill in names to go alongside (hopefully) future stars SS Alicides Escobar and 3B Matt Gamel.

So awards for AAA? I only took guys that ended up on the big league roster.

Position Player-
ESCOBAR
The slick fielding shortstop finally showed he could hit at a higher level. After a questionable stick for years he followed up a strong 2008 AA performance with solid numbers even higher up. Batting .298 in 109 games, he managed to steal 42 of 52 bases. This probably isn't legal, but as I'm making this up why not...In 125 big league ABs Alcides hit .304 with another 4 steals. He still needs to work on pitch selection, as lowering Ks and raising walks could turn him into a great lead off hitter. Also, a season under Willie Randolph can hopefully calm him down in the field, and teach him to pick his spots on the bases getting that SB% up some more. Super exciting player all around, this kid can fly. Alcides Escobar is the future: The Future is Now!

Pitchers-
Starter-
BURNS
Maybe this 31 year old has found his place, after years in the minors he finally throws up a great minor league season resulting in 50 innings for the Brewers big league club. In the Minors Burns had a 8-3 record with a 2.62 ERA throwing 92.2 innings in 14 starts (6 1/2 ip per start). Less hits than IP, more ground outs than fly outs, and a K/B ratio of almost 4. Pitching in the MLB was a little bit different of a story. Mike went 3-5 with a 5.75. However he stepped in the the 'Crew needed him most, because I have no idea who would've pitched if he hadn't...

Reliever-
SMITH
I know, I picked the most exciting last names... you caught me. Smith is also a long time farm hand. Had decent numbers last year, but was really on this season in the AAA bullpen. Chris went 2-0 with 17 saves and a 1.27 ERA in 42.2 ip. Opponents hit only .204 against him, coupled with just 6 bb and 49 K. Spent some good time in Milwaukee, putting up a 4.11 in 46 innings. He still held hitters to a .232 avg, but walks went up and was got for 11 HR. I would imagine he'll fight for a roster spot next spring training.



Triple A was a little bit plain, but that will happen. There are some really good teams down in A-ball that should be fun. I may just do overall awards as there were some good players that did some bouncing around (see Axford). Also, I think in the works I will try out the creation of my own prospects sheet.

Congrats to Mike, Alcides and Chris. Welcome to Rick Peterson. Starting a new blog I think, BaseballTheories. Yankees v Dodgers WS? Brew Up.

Welcome Rick Peterson

Just a quick announcement regarding the pitching coach here in Milwaukee. Former A's and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson has been selected to lead the Crews pitchers this year. Peterson did not coach in 2008 after having been let go by the Mets at the same time as current Brewers bench coach and former Mets manager Willie Randolph. In '08 Peterson got his business, 3pSports off the ground. Peterson also coached under current manager Ken Macha. Some good and bad things about Peterson: He lead the A's group of Mulder, Hudson, and Zito which lead the AL in ERA for two consecutive seasons, and he may have been responsible for the infamous Victor Zambrano/Scott Kazmir swap during which he said he could fix Zambrano (he didn't) and that Kazmir was at least 3 years away from the majors (he wasn't). Also during his time with the Mets, Padres closer Heath Bell played poorly and apparently disagreed with Peterson often.

All in all I'm pretty excited. This is estimated to be a several year, and fairly hefty (maybe in the 7-800k range) deal. Peterson is known for his study in biomechanics, which Brewers team doctors have already been looking into. Fix Parra please. More later. Brew Up.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

2010 Arbitration Cases

So it's finally time for a rundown of which Brewers are eligible for arbitration, and where I see these numbers going. This is something that we here at Brewing will be keeping an eye on an updating as the off season rolls along.

Player-2009 Salary, time eligible
J.J. Hardy-4.65, 3rd (will be again for forth due to time in minors this season.)
Corey Hart-3.25, 2nd
Dave Bush-4, 3rd
Rickie Weeks-2.45, 2nd
Seth McClung-1.6625, 4th
Todd Coffey-.8, 2nd
Jody Gerut-1.775, 3rd
Carlos Villanueva-.477, 1st
Mike Rivera-.415, 1st

There is some good news, which is related to bad news, about the arbitration class this season. Firstly, most of these guys had down seasons, which will mean small raises; with that is the fact that they had down seasons... and the 'Crew didn't make the postseason.

J.J. Hardy faced what was truly his worst season in the big leagues. This eventually lead to a demotion to AAA for long enough to forestall free agency for another year. In 2007 and 2008 Hardy was probably one of the 5 best SS in the NL. While this was a down year, Hardy does have a good track record, and regardless of his hitting he is still a plus fielder. Had he kept up his hitting it would not have been surprising to see Hardy push the 7 million mark. However after this season I doubt he will make 6. That being said, Hardy is almost sure to be traded this off season, and while it's likely he will sign a contract before hand, it should be remembered that he does not have to.
Prediction-1 year, 5.85m

Corey Hart will be up for the second time. Last year Hart and the Brewers had one of the largest gaps in all baseball for contract demands. In the end he signed for the near middle point at 3.25. During last off season the Brewers attempted to lock down Hart long term, and Hart may have made a mistake at that one, as he also settled for his worst season in the Bigs. Unlike Hardy, Hart is a sub par fielder, with speed being his only real plus. That being said Hart had only a 65% success rate swiping 11 bags this year opposed to 77% swiping 23 in the previous two seasons. The Brewers may come back with a something multi-seasonal again, but it seems unlikely Hart would accept at this time with his stock so low. If he had kept pace I would have guessed nearer to 5.5m.
Prediction-1 year, 4m

Dave Bush is entering his third and final season of arbitration. Yep, you guessed it, this guy too is showing up with his worst professional season. Bush, even when not at the top of his game, was a dependable guy. He had give the Brewers 185+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons, and always had a great WHIP, and a wonderful BB/K ratio. While that ratio wasn't bad this year everything else was, including a trip to the DL. After making 2.55 in his first arbitration, and then 4 in his second, if he had kept on pace 5.5-6m would probably have been in order. In all honesty now, I'm not sure what is going to happen. I actually see Bush being traded, mostly for the reason of just not having a spot for him, and I doubt the Brewers will give up on Parra. To non-tender a guy with such a good history seems implausible, regardless of a trade, I see Bush only getting a marginal raise, with maybe some incentives thrown in.
Prediction-1 year, 4.25m

Rickie Weeks is another interesting case. Weeks didn't have a bad season by any means, he just didn't really have one at all. After getting off to one of the best starts in his career, including what appeared to be marked improvements in the field, Weeks was once again (third time) sidelined for the entire season with injury. His .272 avg was 25 points higher than his career average, and he slugged a whopping 100 points over average. All this is really moot though as he played only 37 games. Now Weeks signed a Major League contract when he was drafted which changes dynamics of pay drastically, and in ways that I don't entirely understand. I don't think it should affect his pay next year though... a season where Weeks will probably not see much of a raise either (incentives anyone? Weeks has never played in 130 or more games). GM Doug Melvin reiterated that Weeks is the Brewers 2B, and will not be moving to center, given the quality of play from newcomer Felipe Lopez and the free agency of Mike Cameron, both of those questions have been raised.
Prediction-1 year, 2.75m

Todd Coffey is one man coming off of his best season, and is eligible for the second time. After taking a pay cut in '09 after a very poor '08 campaign, Coffey should be seeing a nice increase. Throwing 80 innings with a 2.90 ERA out of the 'pen, he ranked second in the league with 27 holds and is likely to be a late inning fixture for the Crew again next year. Big raise this year for the big righty. Don't see a multiple year happening because, you know, it's the bullpen... and he's still under team control for another year.
Prediction-1 year, 1.6m

Carlos Villanueva is the first of two Brewers coming into arbitration for the first time. After making 477k this season, Villa is likely in store for a decent raise. One interesting aspect in his case is his bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen and back over his entire career. His 5.34 ERA was his worst ever, building off his previous worst from '08 at 4.07. I would have to imagine Carlos is in the pen for good now, with a 6.52 starting compared to 4.54 ERA relieving ERA. The best comparable player to look at may be teammate McClung. I put together better numbers for Carlos early in his career together with a couple years gone buy to give my guess here. Again, a down season probably saved the Crew some bucks.
Prediction-1 year, 1m.

The aforementioned Seth McClung will be our next topic, entering his final arbitration year. Some people have called McClung a non-tender candidate, but I'm not real sure if I see it. He put up his worst Brewers season, but I think with a move full time to the 'pen (where his ERA was just 3.95 this year) will really help him again. This is where a new pitching coach could make a big deal, as McClung's long time enemy, the walk, came back hard this year. I say bring him back, slot him into that middle innings role and I foresee a sub 4 ERA for a decent price.
Prediction-1 year, 1.85m

Jody Gerut is in the same boat as McClung, third time up and people predicting his release. This one I can see much more easily. After being traded from San Diego for Tony Gwynn Jr. Gerut ended up playing in 85 games for the Brewers, mostly after Hart was injured. He's a decent outfielder who can play all 3 spots, and he has had some very nice offensive seasons in the past. If this were to go to arbitration a raise would be in order, so you'd have a 4th outfielder making 2m? And I sincerely hope he is not our starting CF next year. I would be interested in having him back for about half the price.
Prediction-Released, if resigned-1 year, 750k

Mike Rivera is last but certainly not least. The journeyman catcher has backed up a couple seasons in Milwaukee now, and done a pretty good job of it. With starter Jason Kendall's contract up Rivera claims he is ready to trot out there everyday. '09 was a bit of a down year offensively, but generally what you'll see. Not the best average, but decent, hitting with some pop and not afraid to take a walk. I'm not sure who to compare him to, but seeing that most of his Big League roster time has been spent on the bench, I don't see this one getting crazy. Maybe incentives based on games played.
Prediction-1 year, 650k

It for now. Maybe I'll get around to Minor league awards soon. Think I'll do a projected 2010 payroll next, hopefully tomorrow.
Go Packers? Brew Up.

Friday, October 16, 2009

2010 Options

Hello everyone,

So the Brewers have two options to decide on for 2010. A $3.7 million club option for reliever David Weathers ($400k buyout), and a $6.5 million mutual option with starter Braden Looper ($1m buyout).

Weathers-Weathers owns a 4.25 career ERA in approximately 59 seasons in the big leagues. Over the last 5 years or so Weathers has be good for a 3.2-3.9 ERA with 62-77 IP. After a trade from the Reds last year Weathers did not impress in Milwaukee, with a 4.88 in 24ip, with 11bb and only 10k. These aren't very Weathers like numbers, and we should see those settle back near 4. I think the Brewers should pick this one up. I guess GM Doug Melvin will have a better read on the free agent market, but I like having another experience arm in the 'pen, and other than Hoffman, Brewers are a bit thin on experience. Barring some sort of trade or FA signing, I think that this would be the right choice. I will admit this is a bit controversial, and I really have no idea what Melvin will do.

Looper-I have seen so many differing opinions on this one. The first thing I read about it stated that "of course" the Brewers would pick up this option... I was like "Really? Of Course?" The real funny part is the second thing I read said there was "no way" the Brewers should grab this. At first I supported this one, like I supported the original Looper deal, but the front office has said that it wants to go after 2 arms this off season, that means two arms have to go, and Looper is at the top of that list (let's be serious Suppan isn't going anywhere). Maybe after his knee surgery he wouldn't give up the most homers in the MLB again, but still, he's probably going to run near a ERA of 5, and for the raise to 6.5m I'm against it. Hopefully we can get somebody like Washburn for less, or a Sheets like guy on an incentive laden deal. I wouldn't be shocked if this was picked up, we were sorely lacking on pitchers this year, but I think it'd be a waste of money, and we may as well roll our dice on somebody else than on another year of 30+ HR allowed. If the Crew does pick this up, I don't see Looper turning down his half of the deal. Even with a thin SP free agent market, after a poor season I just don't see Braden getting more than 4-5 again. We'll be on the hook for a $1 million buy out.

It for now, Arb talk still pending.
Have fun with the start of the ALCS. Brew Up.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Yost an Astro?

Former Brewers manager Ned Yost is interviewing with the Houston Astros about their managerial opening. He was the Brewers manager for almost six seasons, being fired with just a few games to go leading up to the Brewers' 2008 playoff appearance. Yost is one of ten being considered in an interview process that is being held publicly. Candidates meet with team officials, and then immedialtey speak with the press. Yost has been entirely silent since his dismissal except for one brief interview shortly following the firing. He made a few comments about his time with the Brewers, and I'll say it, he sounded kind of angsty. What did he learn in Milwaukee? "Don't lose 10 out of 13 games is the best thing I can figure," Yost told reporters in Houston, "and hope your offense stays on track so you don't struggle to score runs." Unfortunately for Houston he apparently didn't learn how to manage a bullpen. Other former big league managers up for the post include Bob Melvin (D'Backs) and Manny Acta (Nationals). From the list I'd personally take Melvin, he had some nice years with the Snakes.

Arbitration next, maybe tonight or tomorrow.

Have fun with the start of the NLCS. Brew Up.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

2009 Salaries, 2010 Projected

Hey everyone,

Quick rundown of what everybody made in 2009, and what is owed in 2010. This isn't exact obviously with trades and what not, but is generally pretty close.

(Salary in millions of dollars)
Position Name '09 Salary 2010 Salary
SP Suppan 12.75 12.75
CF Cameron 10 FA
3B Hall 6.925 7.15 (Seattle is paying 1.375)
CP Hoffman 6 7.5
C Kendall 5 FA
SP Looper 4.75 6.5 option 1 buyout
SS Hardy 4.65 ARB
RP Riske 4.25 4.5
RF Hart 3.25 ARB
SP Bush 4 ARB
2B Weeks 2.45 ARB
RP McClung 1.6625 ARB
LF Braun .745 1
INF Counsell 1 FA
RP Julio .95 (Released)
RP Coffey .8 ARB
RP Villanueva .477 ARB
SP Parra .426 .426+
C Rivera .415 ARB
SP Gallardo .414 .414+
RP Stetter .4075 .4075+
RP DiFelice .403 .403+
3B McGehee .400 .400+

Midseason Acquisitions
2B Lopez 3.5 FA
RP Weathers 3.5 3.7 option .4 buyout
OF Gerut 1.775 ARB

With assorted other rookies and whatnot on the books, along with portions of signing bonuses being doled out, opening day payroll 2009 was $80m+.

--Here is an explanation of contracts for those of you who don't know--
Players with less than 4 years of service time have contracts decided on by the club. The players listed with a "+" in there '10 column have two or less years of service, and assuming they do not sign a long term deal, will make only marginally more money.

Now players with 4-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. This means that unless a salary can be agreed upon my player and team figures will be exchanged and a court will choose one of those two figures. Since Melvin has been GM no arbitration cases have gone to court. There are some players in this service range who have salaries listed, this is because they have signed long term (i.e. Braun, Fielder). Players entering their first arbitration year are typically due large raises (Fielder got about $6.5m more) because they are going from team control to market fairness levels. During these years players may be non-tendered, or simply not offered a contract. If this is done they are free agents and may sign with any team for any amount of money. Players who were making lots of money and then had some down seasons may be non tendered as arbitration allows only a 20% pay cut at most.

Players past 6 years of service time are no longer under team control if they do not have a contract. However, the team they are leaving still has the right to offer the player arbitration. If the player declines they become free agents, if they accept the process is the same as other arbitration eligible players. The tricky part that comes in is that depending on the quality of the player, then can be designated as a type A or B player (most are nothing at all). These designations give draft picks to the team the player leaves; but, the former team only gets the draft picks if they offer the player arbitration. Type A gives the new signing teams 1st or 2nd (depending on standings) round pick to the former team, plus an extra supplemental round pick (between round 1 and 2); a type B is just rewarded the supplemental round pick, with no penalty to the new team. It can be risky to offer players arbitration, as you may end up with paying more salary than you want, or too many players, however it is risked because teams want the extra draft picks.
--End way too long contract system explanation--

Oh man that was long.

The only Brewers free agents who are worthy of a ranking is Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez, who both look to be type B.
-Cameron will not be offered arbitration, he is currently making $10m, and would get at least a small raise. Way too much money. He has said he would like to come back, and implied that he would take a discount. Maybe not a bad idea as #1 CF prospect for the Brewers in Lorenzo Cain, who is looking like he'll need at least one more season in AAA. If we can resign Cam to maybe something in the 4-5 million range I would be accepting. He still plays plus defense, and can be counted on for .250 avg and 20+hrs.

-Lopez is more interesting. GM Doug Melvin recently reiterated that Rickie Weeks is the Brewers second basemen. However Lopez was signed last year for a reasonable 3.5m, and is coming off of a career season (.310 avg). Seems like the Brewers will take this one up, as I really doubt Lopez would except the offer, and the Crew would come away with an extra pick. But, as always when offering arbitration you need to think of both possibilities. If accepted you get a .300 switch hitter for probably under 5m who can play 2B and SS (though not real well). Picks this deal up.

Because this post is so super long I will come back with a discussion of arbitration eligible players later. I will try to repost some important things, like total salary numbers in every discussion.

That's all for now. I'm spoiling everyone with how much I'm writing. Don't get to used to it, I may actually have something important to do in the future (though probably not).

Brew Up.

Upcoming Free Agents, Arbitration Cases

Hey everyone,

Lets just start out with a look at some Brewers contract issues.

Players that are now entering free agency are:
CF Mike Cameron
OF Frank Catalanotto
INF Craig Counsell
C Jason Kendall
OF Corey Patterson
2B Felipe Lopez

Options:
SP Braden Looper-$6.5m mutual (both sides must exercise) $1m buyout
RP David Weathers-$3.7m club option $400k buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players:
SP Dave Bush
RP Todd Coffey
OF Jody Gerut
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Corey Hart
RHP Seth McClung
C Mike Rivera (first time)*
RHP Carlos Villanueva (first time)*
2B Rickie Weeks
* first time arbitration eligible players are most likely to see a large salary increase.

I want to go through and list salaries, then give some ideas about what kind of numbers we might see for the arbitration guys, and some ideas for the free agents/options we have. Hopefully I can get to that later today.

Chilly outside, baseball warms my heart. Brew up.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

We're Back! Trevor too!

Hey Everybody!

After some time away from the game, we are back (and with a schnazy new name)!

First off, we are very excited and pleased to announce the resigning of Trevor Hoffman.
The contract is a one year, $7.5 million deal, with a mutual option for 2011 (which means that the Brewers will have the choice to pick up the deal or pay a buyout, but if the option is exercised the player can void it, but then would not receive the buyout). The buyout is for $500k, which can increase to $1m depending on games finished in 2010. The salary for 2011 also will increase depending on games finished, up to $8.5 million. There is $8m in guaranteed money, so some sources call this a "one year, eight million dollar deal with a mutual option." The maximum value of the deal is $16m.

Up next will be a list of Brewers free agents and arbitration eligible players, hopefully closely followed by a total salary update and likely contract outcomes. Then I hope to sift through the minors and assign some of my own awards to the guys working hard down on the farm.

That's it for now.
We had a couple weeks off, and now we're ready for the Brew-season! I mean off season!
(Or as I like to call it, the true season. Someone once told me, "The season itself isn't about winning, it's about collecting the awards you earned during the off season.) Brew up!