2010 Arbitration Cases

So it's finally time for a rundown of which Brewers are eligible for arbitration, and where I see these numbers going. This is something that we here at Brewing will be keeping an eye on an updating as the off season rolls along.

Player-2009 Salary, time eligible
J.J. Hardy-4.65, 3rd (will be again for forth due to time in minors this season.)
Corey Hart-3.25, 2nd
Dave Bush-4, 3rd
Rickie Weeks-2.45, 2nd
Seth McClung-1.6625, 4th
Todd Coffey-.8, 2nd
Jody Gerut-1.775, 3rd
Carlos Villanueva-.477, 1st
Mike Rivera-.415, 1st

There is some good news, which is related to bad news, about the arbitration class this season. Firstly, most of these guys had down seasons, which will mean small raises; with that is the fact that they had down seasons... and the 'Crew didn't make the postseason.

J.J. Hardy faced what was truly his worst season in the big leagues. This eventually lead to a demotion to AAA for long enough to forestall free agency for another year. In 2007 and 2008 Hardy was probably one of the 5 best SS in the NL. While this was a down year, Hardy does have a good track record, and regardless of his hitting he is still a plus fielder. Had he kept up his hitting it would not have been surprising to see Hardy push the 7 million mark. However after this season I doubt he will make 6. That being said, Hardy is almost sure to be traded this off season, and while it's likely he will sign a contract before hand, it should be remembered that he does not have to.
Prediction-1 year, 5.85m

Corey Hart will be up for the second time. Last year Hart and the Brewers had one of the largest gaps in all baseball for contract demands. In the end he signed for the near middle point at 3.25. During last off season the Brewers attempted to lock down Hart long term, and Hart may have made a mistake at that one, as he also settled for his worst season in the Bigs. Unlike Hardy, Hart is a sub par fielder, with speed being his only real plus. That being said Hart had only a 65% success rate swiping 11 bags this year opposed to 77% swiping 23 in the previous two seasons. The Brewers may come back with a something multi-seasonal again, but it seems unlikely Hart would accept at this time with his stock so low. If he had kept pace I would have guessed nearer to 5.5m.
Prediction-1 year, 4m

Dave Bush is entering his third and final season of arbitration. Yep, you guessed it, this guy too is showing up with his worst professional season. Bush, even when not at the top of his game, was a dependable guy. He had give the Brewers 185+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons, and always had a great WHIP, and a wonderful BB/K ratio. While that ratio wasn't bad this year everything else was, including a trip to the DL. After making 2.55 in his first arbitration, and then 4 in his second, if he had kept on pace 5.5-6m would probably have been in order. In all honesty now, I'm not sure what is going to happen. I actually see Bush being traded, mostly for the reason of just not having a spot for him, and I doubt the Brewers will give up on Parra. To non-tender a guy with such a good history seems implausible, regardless of a trade, I see Bush only getting a marginal raise, with maybe some incentives thrown in.
Prediction-1 year, 4.25m

Rickie Weeks is another interesting case. Weeks didn't have a bad season by any means, he just didn't really have one at all. After getting off to one of the best starts in his career, including what appeared to be marked improvements in the field, Weeks was once again (third time) sidelined for the entire season with injury. His .272 avg was 25 points higher than his career average, and he slugged a whopping 100 points over average. All this is really moot though as he played only 37 games. Now Weeks signed a Major League contract when he was drafted which changes dynamics of pay drastically, and in ways that I don't entirely understand. I don't think it should affect his pay next year though... a season where Weeks will probably not see much of a raise either (incentives anyone? Weeks has never played in 130 or more games). GM Doug Melvin reiterated that Weeks is the Brewers 2B, and will not be moving to center, given the quality of play from newcomer Felipe Lopez and the free agency of Mike Cameron, both of those questions have been raised.
Prediction-1 year, 2.75m

Todd Coffey is one man coming off of his best season, and is eligible for the second time. After taking a pay cut in '09 after a very poor '08 campaign, Coffey should be seeing a nice increase. Throwing 80 innings with a 2.90 ERA out of the 'pen, he ranked second in the league with 27 holds and is likely to be a late inning fixture for the Crew again next year. Big raise this year for the big righty. Don't see a multiple year happening because, you know, it's the bullpen... and he's still under team control for another year.
Prediction-1 year, 1.6m

Carlos Villanueva is the first of two Brewers coming into arbitration for the first time. After making 477k this season, Villa is likely in store for a decent raise. One interesting aspect in his case is his bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen and back over his entire career. His 5.34 ERA was his worst ever, building off his previous worst from '08 at 4.07. I would have to imagine Carlos is in the pen for good now, with a 6.52 starting compared to 4.54 ERA relieving ERA. The best comparable player to look at may be teammate McClung. I put together better numbers for Carlos early in his career together with a couple years gone buy to give my guess here. Again, a down season probably saved the Crew some bucks.
Prediction-1 year, 1m.

The aforementioned Seth McClung will be our next topic, entering his final arbitration year. Some people have called McClung a non-tender candidate, but I'm not real sure if I see it. He put up his worst Brewers season, but I think with a move full time to the 'pen (where his ERA was just 3.95 this year) will really help him again. This is where a new pitching coach could make a big deal, as McClung's long time enemy, the walk, came back hard this year. I say bring him back, slot him into that middle innings role and I foresee a sub 4 ERA for a decent price.
Prediction-1 year, 1.85m

Jody Gerut is in the same boat as McClung, third time up and people predicting his release. This one I can see much more easily. After being traded from San Diego for Tony Gwynn Jr. Gerut ended up playing in 85 games for the Brewers, mostly after Hart was injured. He's a decent outfielder who can play all 3 spots, and he has had some very nice offensive seasons in the past. If this were to go to arbitration a raise would be in order, so you'd have a 4th outfielder making 2m? And I sincerely hope he is not our starting CF next year. I would be interested in having him back for about half the price.
Prediction-Released, if resigned-1 year, 750k

Mike Rivera is last but certainly not least. The journeyman catcher has backed up a couple seasons in Milwaukee now, and done a pretty good job of it. With starter Jason Kendall's contract up Rivera claims he is ready to trot out there everyday. '09 was a bit of a down year offensively, but generally what you'll see. Not the best average, but decent, hitting with some pop and not afraid to take a walk. I'm not sure who to compare him to, but seeing that most of his Big League roster time has been spent on the bench, I don't see this one getting crazy. Maybe incentives based on games played.
Prediction-1 year, 650k

It for now. Maybe I'll get around to Minor league awards soon. Think I'll do a projected 2010 payroll next, hopefully tomorrow.
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