Hey Everyone,
So first and foremost is the Carlos Gomez deal, which in his first (of what will be four) year of arbitration. The young right handed hitting center fielder will receive $1.1 million after making a shade under $5ook last year..
Now there are 4 players left that have exchanged figures.
First up is Corey Hart. Hart had the largest differences of all Brew Crew players last season and has another big one this year. My old timey guess put his number at $4m, and my new one saw it a bit higher, and higher it will be with the team submitting $4.15m and Corey coming in at $4.8m, putting the middle point at $4.475. That would be a pretty fine raise from his salary of $3.25 last year.
Next is righty reliever Carlos Villanueva, also up for the first time. My guess which I stuck by was an even $1 m, and it's looking like I may be very close on this one. The Brewers are offering $800k with Carlos looking for $1.075m. That's a middle point of $937,500. If Villa' can put together a good season out of the 'pen (where he does a much better job than when he's starting) this should be a pretty good deal.
We'll head over now to the only starter on the list, righty Dave Bush. Last year was Bush's worst, and pitched only 114.1 innings, his fewest since he broke into the Bigs. Dave made $4 million last year and after a stint on the DL and an ERA over 6 I predicted a raise to $4.25 m, then upped it more recently to $4.5. Both are pretty darn good, though the lighter choice may have been the better one. The team threw out $4.125 with Bushy going for $4.45, middle point of $4.2875. Though last season was awful I think people generally accept some kind of return to form. Prior to '09 Bush had a 4.56 ERA in 3 seasons spanning 581.1 innings for the Brewers.
Last but certainly not least is another righty Todd Coffey. Coffey has the position of being that largest gap in numbers this season coming in at three quarters of a million dollars. Coffey has requested $2.45 m with the Brewers at $1.7 m. My original prediction was a measly $1.6, but my new one was much closer at $1.9. The middle point between the two would be $2.075 m. Todd will be trying to cash in on a great last season in which he lead the League in relief innings (83.2) and had a 2.90 ERA. However history must be taken into account as well, that helps someone like Dave Bush, but could hurt Todd, as this was his break out year. This was to me a surprisingly good off-season for relievers with guys like Brandon Lyon getting a 3 year $15 m deal, so that could help, but overall I think the Brewers are in the right, and they should settle south of the $2.1 mil mark.
Well that's it for now. The team should be working on this pretty solid for the next while, though Doug Melvin actually doesn't handle this so he should be able to keep an eye out for that pitcher. Something to keep in mind is that these numbers have nothing to do with available payroll, as the organization has it's budget set up with these estimated in advance. There won't be any long term talk until these are finished, then maybe a deal for Prince Fielder or Gallardo may be visited, but I wouldn't expect that yet. Take it easy.
Brew Up.
Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010
Arbitration Looms, 2 Week Recap
Hey Everyone,
So quite a few things worthy of mention have happened in the two weeks since my last post, but apparently I write more often when school is in session because I'm just avoiding doing school work. Oh well, let's get to this recap, and then talk about the looming arbitration.
This was more than two weeks ago now but I still want to bring it up, that Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors.com called the signing of Gregg Zaun one of the best of the offseason. Part of this might have been related to the fact that two of his worst signings were former Brewer Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, who each got two years and $6 million. Not that Zaun is an awesome pick up or anything but the Crew got exactly what they needed in him, a catcher to take a one year deal, who hits better than Kendall, good signing. Side Note: Former Brewers CF Mike Cameron's two year $15.5 mm deal with the Red Sox was also listed amongst the best.
Former Brewers Manager Ned Yost is back in baseball after spending last season relaxing. Everyone should remember that Yost was fired with 12 games left in the season in 2008, the latest in the year a manager has ever been fired for a team entering the playoffs. Yost will assume a front office position as a special assistant to the Baseball Operations department. I think Yost was a pretty crummy manager but must admit that he did well with the young guys during his early years, a role in player development for a young team like the Royals sounds like a good fit for him.
The Brewers have signed former Reds outfielder Norris Hopper to a minor league deal. Somewhat surprisingly this deal does not include an invitation to Big League Camp in spring training, so it would appear that Hopper will not be competing for a back up outfield spot. Norris did not play in the Bigs last year, but had decent success from '06-'08 with the Reds, playing decent defense at all 3 outfield spots and hitting a combined .316 with 1 HR and 17 SB in 400 at bats. His worst season was 2008, but he had a decent year in AAA last season split between 3 organizations. He bats righty and should supply some pinch hitter insurance in case guys like Oeltjen don't pan out (see Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson last year...).
The search for another starting pitcher apparently continues... The seemingly never ended saga of the pending signing of Mark Mulder continues. The front office along with new pitching coach Peterson were all in Arizona last week to talk pitching and went over to see Mulder. However, Mark has not progressed far enough to throw off a mound yet (something I thought he had been doing for months). GM Doug Melvin said he plans to revisit Mulder some time in the future. This kind of feels like one of those things were the pitching coach is saying take a chance but Doug is just not feeling it. Mulder will only command a minor league deal.
There have been multiple reports however that the Brewers will indeed sign one more "real" pitcher before the season begins. The number one name that keeps coming up is former Brewer, the lefty Doug Davis. As recent as the last week Melvin has been said to been keeping up with Davis' agent. The other is a man with a long connection to the Brewers this off season as well, Jarrod Washburn. Jarrod is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to pitch close to home (Minnesota or Milwaukee). Interestingly enough he turned down an offer from the Twins already this off season reported to be near $5 million. I don't see the Brewers wanting to get near that number, so it's probably less of a close to home thing and more of a regular, "I want more money" thing. I just kind of see Davis being signed as I haven't heard of much interest his way. I doubt an incentive laden deal would happen, as he is one of the more durable pitchers in the game. One name that hasn't been brought up much is John Garland, considered to be one of the best left with the two previously named men, Garland is the only righty of the group.
So now on to arbitration, which is used to determine salaries for players with between three and five years of experience (or occasionally two). The Brewers have seven players eligible, down from eight after the non-tendering of Mike Rivera and Seth McClung, plus the addition of Carlos Gomez (who is a Super 2). All seven have filed, which is really just a formality. Tomorrow, unless a deal can be reached beforehand, numbers will be exchanged between the clubs and players. There should be a flurry of signings today to avoid this process, and then there should be plenty of signings after the exchange, as the middle point is quite often decided upon as fair. It was reported that there is more than one Brewers player who is close to avoiding arbitration. Hart may be one, as he is coming off a disappointing year and I see him gaining little in the process, and may be more benefited by signing an incentive laden deal.
More on Arby fun time tomorrow. Peace for now. Brew Up.
So quite a few things worthy of mention have happened in the two weeks since my last post, but apparently I write more often when school is in session because I'm just avoiding doing school work. Oh well, let's get to this recap, and then talk about the looming arbitration.
This was more than two weeks ago now but I still want to bring it up, that Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors.com called the signing of Gregg Zaun one of the best of the offseason. Part of this might have been related to the fact that two of his worst signings were former Brewer Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, who each got two years and $6 million. Not that Zaun is an awesome pick up or anything but the Crew got exactly what they needed in him, a catcher to take a one year deal, who hits better than Kendall, good signing. Side Note: Former Brewers CF Mike Cameron's two year $15.5 mm deal with the Red Sox was also listed amongst the best.
Former Brewers Manager Ned Yost is back in baseball after spending last season relaxing. Everyone should remember that Yost was fired with 12 games left in the season in 2008, the latest in the year a manager has ever been fired for a team entering the playoffs. Yost will assume a front office position as a special assistant to the Baseball Operations department. I think Yost was a pretty crummy manager but must admit that he did well with the young guys during his early years, a role in player development for a young team like the Royals sounds like a good fit for him.
The Brewers have signed former Reds outfielder Norris Hopper to a minor league deal. Somewhat surprisingly this deal does not include an invitation to Big League Camp in spring training, so it would appear that Hopper will not be competing for a back up outfield spot. Norris did not play in the Bigs last year, but had decent success from '06-'08 with the Reds, playing decent defense at all 3 outfield spots and hitting a combined .316 with 1 HR and 17 SB in 400 at bats. His worst season was 2008, but he had a decent year in AAA last season split between 3 organizations. He bats righty and should supply some pinch hitter insurance in case guys like Oeltjen don't pan out (see Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson last year...).
The search for another starting pitcher apparently continues... The seemingly never ended saga of the pending signing of Mark Mulder continues. The front office along with new pitching coach Peterson were all in Arizona last week to talk pitching and went over to see Mulder. However, Mark has not progressed far enough to throw off a mound yet (something I thought he had been doing for months). GM Doug Melvin said he plans to revisit Mulder some time in the future. This kind of feels like one of those things were the pitching coach is saying take a chance but Doug is just not feeling it. Mulder will only command a minor league deal.
There have been multiple reports however that the Brewers will indeed sign one more "real" pitcher before the season begins. The number one name that keeps coming up is former Brewer, the lefty Doug Davis. As recent as the last week Melvin has been said to been keeping up with Davis' agent. The other is a man with a long connection to the Brewers this off season as well, Jarrod Washburn. Jarrod is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to pitch close to home (Minnesota or Milwaukee). Interestingly enough he turned down an offer from the Twins already this off season reported to be near $5 million. I don't see the Brewers wanting to get near that number, so it's probably less of a close to home thing and more of a regular, "I want more money" thing. I just kind of see Davis being signed as I haven't heard of much interest his way. I doubt an incentive laden deal would happen, as he is one of the more durable pitchers in the game. One name that hasn't been brought up much is John Garland, considered to be one of the best left with the two previously named men, Garland is the only righty of the group.
So now on to arbitration, which is used to determine salaries for players with between three and five years of experience (or occasionally two). The Brewers have seven players eligible, down from eight after the non-tendering of Mike Rivera and Seth McClung, plus the addition of Carlos Gomez (who is a Super 2). All seven have filed, which is really just a formality. Tomorrow, unless a deal can be reached beforehand, numbers will be exchanged between the clubs and players. There should be a flurry of signings today to avoid this process, and then there should be plenty of signings after the exchange, as the middle point is quite often decided upon as fair. It was reported that there is more than one Brewers player who is close to avoiding arbitration. Hart may be one, as he is coming off a disappointing year and I see him gaining little in the process, and may be more benefited by signing an incentive laden deal.
More on Arby fun time tomorrow. Peace for now. Brew Up.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Arbitration Talk
I have to give a shout to Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors for his very good explanation of the arbitration process, so I'm going to pass on that link (though I think mine is fairly good too).
Also, now talk is coming out of the Brewers camp that Lopez may not be offered arbitration. GM Doug Melvin asks the question, "Where would he play?". He talks about the depth but the issues of good players wanting playing time, and also the trade off of money spent on an extra infielder versus pitching. Regardless, I still think the Brewers offer Lopez arbitration, I have no idea why he would except, and even if he did he would have some nice trade value.
It for now. The deadline is tonight at 11pm CT, so I'm sure I'll have another post with reactions to what the Crew does. Brew Up.
Also, now talk is coming out of the Brewers camp that Lopez may not be offered arbitration. GM Doug Melvin asks the question, "Where would he play?". He talks about the depth but the issues of good players wanting playing time, and also the trade off of money spent on an extra infielder versus pitching. Regardless, I still think the Brewers offer Lopez arbitration, I have no idea why he would except, and even if he did he would have some nice trade value.
It for now. The deadline is tonight at 11pm CT, so I'm sure I'll have another post with reactions to what the Crew does. Brew Up.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Arbitration approaches, Millwood rumors, Fielder Contract
The deadline for offering free agents approaches. Free agents are given either an A, B, or no ranking depending on there position and production, and teams may recieve compensation for those players leaving, but only if the offer of arbitration is extended. There is more to this, but I do have a longer explanation in a post from the summer. Long story short: Teams want draft picks, but can't just offer in case the player excepts, as he is then under contract. Also, a player almost never takes a pay cut in arbitration.
There is no point in extending offers to free agents who are not ranked since there is no compensation. The Brewers have no type As this year, however do have 4 type Bs. If these players are signed elsewhere the Crew would recieve a draft pick between the first and second rounds.
Mike Cameron- Made $10 million last season and I really doubt he will be making that much in 2010. Brewers have already committed to Carlos Gomez as their outfielder, making it almost a sure thing Cam' is not offered.
David Weathers- The Brewers already declined Weathers' 3.75 million dollar option, paying him a $400k buyout instead. Seeing as David make 3.4 mill this year the decision has already been made, Weathers will not be offered arb.
Jason Kendall- GM Doug Melvin has already said he does not want to allocate $5 million to the catching position, which is what Kendall made this last year. Seems likely the Crew goes the cheap route, Kendall is not offered.
Felipe Lopez- The second basemen had a career season and enters a week crop of middle infielders. After making only 3.5 million in '09 if he were to accept arbitration would likely not see 5. Also, arbitration is a one year contract, and I'm sure Felipe would like to see a couple of years. This being said, it is doubtful that he would accept an offer, and if he does it wouldn't be a bad deal for the Brewers, who could always trade him or Weeks later on. Lopez does get offered arbitration, and declines.
So it is a bit of a shame for the Brewers to have 4 players and only get 1 pick out of it, but it's better than last year when they had 2 type A free agents and only got a supplemental and a 2nd rounder (Ben Sheets never signed with another team).
Now on to new Kevin Millwood rumors. Supposedly the Orioles are interested, and the sourse claims that the Rangers would like to move his 12 million dollar salary to free up money for a bat. This is all and good, however the report coming in a few days ago was the the Rangers had new real incination to move Kevin...
Some other interesting ideas came up in a Brewers Mailbag with Adam McCalvy. It has been said that the Brewers will look to sign Fielder to an extension following the heart of this offseason. Fielder is already under contract for 2010 and under team control for another season after that. What else we know is that Fielder's agent, Scott Boras does not like to sign deals during arbitration years, and it was even surprising when a two year deal was reached last winter. What is scary now is the comparison McCalvy made between Fielder and another Boras agent... Mark Texiera. Tex signed a 8 year 180 million dollar contract last year with the Yankees and will be seen as a comperable for Prince. Mark was 28, with a .282 avg, 140 hr and 450 rbi after 4 seasons while taking 5th in rookie of the year voting, winning a Silver Slugger and making an All-Star team. Prince will be 27 when he hits free agency, and is currently a .283 hitter with 158 hr and 443 rbi while taking seventh in ROY voting, winning a Silver Slugger, making an All-Star team, and taking third in a MVP ballot. Yikes. The point is why would would Prince sign a 3-5 year deal now when he is just two away from would could potentially be a 200 million dollar pay day? I would like to see it happen but it won't. To me Prince will be a Brewer for the next two years MAX (and likely less).
That's it for now, hopefully things will heat up after Tuesday, and the Winter meetings are just right around the corner. Getting cold outside, Brew Up.
There is no point in extending offers to free agents who are not ranked since there is no compensation. The Brewers have no type As this year, however do have 4 type Bs. If these players are signed elsewhere the Crew would recieve a draft pick between the first and second rounds.
Mike Cameron- Made $10 million last season and I really doubt he will be making that much in 2010. Brewers have already committed to Carlos Gomez as their outfielder, making it almost a sure thing Cam' is not offered.
David Weathers- The Brewers already declined Weathers' 3.75 million dollar option, paying him a $400k buyout instead. Seeing as David make 3.4 mill this year the decision has already been made, Weathers will not be offered arb.
Jason Kendall- GM Doug Melvin has already said he does not want to allocate $5 million to the catching position, which is what Kendall made this last year. Seems likely the Crew goes the cheap route, Kendall is not offered.
Felipe Lopez- The second basemen had a career season and enters a week crop of middle infielders. After making only 3.5 million in '09 if he were to accept arbitration would likely not see 5. Also, arbitration is a one year contract, and I'm sure Felipe would like to see a couple of years. This being said, it is doubtful that he would accept an offer, and if he does it wouldn't be a bad deal for the Brewers, who could always trade him or Weeks later on. Lopez does get offered arbitration, and declines.
So it is a bit of a shame for the Brewers to have 4 players and only get 1 pick out of it, but it's better than last year when they had 2 type A free agents and only got a supplemental and a 2nd rounder (Ben Sheets never signed with another team).
Now on to new Kevin Millwood rumors. Supposedly the Orioles are interested, and the sourse claims that the Rangers would like to move his 12 million dollar salary to free up money for a bat. This is all and good, however the report coming in a few days ago was the the Rangers had new real incination to move Kevin...
Some other interesting ideas came up in a Brewers Mailbag with Adam McCalvy. It has been said that the Brewers will look to sign Fielder to an extension following the heart of this offseason. Fielder is already under contract for 2010 and under team control for another season after that. What else we know is that Fielder's agent, Scott Boras does not like to sign deals during arbitration years, and it was even surprising when a two year deal was reached last winter. What is scary now is the comparison McCalvy made between Fielder and another Boras agent... Mark Texiera. Tex signed a 8 year 180 million dollar contract last year with the Yankees and will be seen as a comperable for Prince. Mark was 28, with a .282 avg, 140 hr and 450 rbi after 4 seasons while taking 5th in rookie of the year voting, winning a Silver Slugger and making an All-Star team. Prince will be 27 when he hits free agency, and is currently a .283 hitter with 158 hr and 443 rbi while taking seventh in ROY voting, winning a Silver Slugger, making an All-Star team, and taking third in a MVP ballot. Yikes. The point is why would would Prince sign a 3-5 year deal now when he is just two away from would could potentially be a 200 million dollar pay day? I would like to see it happen but it won't. To me Prince will be a Brewer for the next two years MAX (and likely less).
That's it for now, hopefully things will heat up after Tuesday, and the Winter meetings are just right around the corner. Getting cold outside, Brew Up.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Option on Weathers Declined
Brewers declined the 3.7 million dollar option on right handed reliever David Weathers. The Brewers acquired Weathers from the Reds in exchange for cash. Dave made 3.4 million in 2009, on his way to 3.92 ERA. Projected to be a Type B free agent, it seems unlikely that the Brewers would offer arbitration
This would seemingly open up a hole in the Brewers bullpen, perhaps strengthening the likelihood that Claudio Vargas is resigned. Vargas was acquired from the Dodgers and put up a 1.74 ERA in 41.1 innings last season with a WHIP under 1.
This would seemingly open up a hole in the Brewers bullpen, perhaps strengthening the likelihood that Claudio Vargas is resigned. Vargas was acquired from the Dodgers and put up a 1.74 ERA in 41.1 innings last season with a WHIP under 1.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
2010 Arbitration Cases
So it's finally time for a rundown of which Brewers are eligible for arbitration, and where I see these numbers going. This is something that we here at Brewing will be keeping an eye on an updating as the off season rolls along.
Player-2009 Salary, time eligible
J.J. Hardy-4.65, 3rd (will be again for forth due to time in minors this season.)
Corey Hart-3.25, 2nd
Dave Bush-4, 3rd
Rickie Weeks-2.45, 2nd
Seth McClung-1.6625, 4th
Todd Coffey-.8, 2nd
Jody Gerut-1.775, 3rd
Carlos Villanueva-.477, 1st
Mike Rivera-.415, 1st
There is some good news, which is related to bad news, about the arbitration class this season. Firstly, most of these guys had down seasons, which will mean small raises; with that is the fact that they had down seasons... and the 'Crew didn't make the postseason.
J.J. Hardy faced what was truly his worst season in the big leagues. This eventually lead to a demotion to AAA for long enough to forestall free agency for another year. In 2007 and 2008 Hardy was probably one of the 5 best SS in the NL. While this was a down year, Hardy does have a good track record, and regardless of his hitting he is still a plus fielder. Had he kept up his hitting it would not have been surprising to see Hardy push the 7 million mark. However after this season I doubt he will make 6. That being said, Hardy is almost sure to be traded this off season, and while it's likely he will sign a contract before hand, it should be remembered that he does not have to.
Prediction-1 year, 5.85m
Corey Hart will be up for the second time. Last year Hart and the Brewers had one of the largest gaps in all baseball for contract demands. In the end he signed for the near middle point at 3.25. During last off season the Brewers attempted to lock down Hart long term, and Hart may have made a mistake at that one, as he also settled for his worst season in the Bigs. Unlike Hardy, Hart is a sub par fielder, with speed being his only real plus. That being said Hart had only a 65% success rate swiping 11 bags this year opposed to 77% swiping 23 in the previous two seasons. The Brewers may come back with a something multi-seasonal again, but it seems unlikely Hart would accept at this time with his stock so low. If he had kept pace I would have guessed nearer to 5.5m.
Prediction-1 year, 4m
Dave Bush is entering his third and final season of arbitration. Yep, you guessed it, this guy too is showing up with his worst professional season. Bush, even when not at the top of his game, was a dependable guy. He had give the Brewers 185+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons, and always had a great WHIP, and a wonderful BB/K ratio. While that ratio wasn't bad this year everything else was, including a trip to the DL. After making 2.55 in his first arbitration, and then 4 in his second, if he had kept on pace 5.5-6m would probably have been in order. In all honesty now, I'm not sure what is going to happen. I actually see Bush being traded, mostly for the reason of just not having a spot for him, and I doubt the Brewers will give up on Parra. To non-tender a guy with such a good history seems implausible, regardless of a trade, I see Bush only getting a marginal raise, with maybe some incentives thrown in.
Prediction-1 year, 4.25m
Rickie Weeks is another interesting case. Weeks didn't have a bad season by any means, he just didn't really have one at all. After getting off to one of the best starts in his career, including what appeared to be marked improvements in the field, Weeks was once again (third time) sidelined for the entire season with injury. His .272 avg was 25 points higher than his career average, and he slugged a whopping 100 points over average. All this is really moot though as he played only 37 games. Now Weeks signed a Major League contract when he was drafted which changes dynamics of pay drastically, and in ways that I don't entirely understand. I don't think it should affect his pay next year though... a season where Weeks will probably not see much of a raise either (incentives anyone? Weeks has never played in 130 or more games). GM Doug Melvin reiterated that Weeks is the Brewers 2B, and will not be moving to center, given the quality of play from newcomer Felipe Lopez and the free agency of Mike Cameron, both of those questions have been raised.
Prediction-1 year, 2.75m
Todd Coffey is one man coming off of his best season, and is eligible for the second time. After taking a pay cut in '09 after a very poor '08 campaign, Coffey should be seeing a nice increase. Throwing 80 innings with a 2.90 ERA out of the 'pen, he ranked second in the league with 27 holds and is likely to be a late inning fixture for the Crew again next year. Big raise this year for the big righty. Don't see a multiple year happening because, you know, it's the bullpen... and he's still under team control for another year.
Prediction-1 year, 1.6m
Carlos Villanueva is the first of two Brewers coming into arbitration for the first time. After making 477k this season, Villa is likely in store for a decent raise. One interesting aspect in his case is his bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen and back over his entire career. His 5.34 ERA was his worst ever, building off his previous worst from '08 at 4.07. I would have to imagine Carlos is in the pen for good now, with a 6.52 starting compared to 4.54 ERA relieving ERA. The best comparable player to look at may be teammate McClung. I put together better numbers for Carlos early in his career together with a couple years gone buy to give my guess here. Again, a down season probably saved the Crew some bucks.
Prediction-1 year, 1m.
The aforementioned Seth McClung will be our next topic, entering his final arbitration year. Some people have called McClung a non-tender candidate, but I'm not real sure if I see it. He put up his worst Brewers season, but I think with a move full time to the 'pen (where his ERA was just 3.95 this year) will really help him again. This is where a new pitching coach could make a big deal, as McClung's long time enemy, the walk, came back hard this year. I say bring him back, slot him into that middle innings role and I foresee a sub 4 ERA for a decent price.
Prediction-1 year, 1.85m
Jody Gerut is in the same boat as McClung, third time up and people predicting his release. This one I can see much more easily. After being traded from San Diego for Tony Gwynn Jr. Gerut ended up playing in 85 games for the Brewers, mostly after Hart was injured. He's a decent outfielder who can play all 3 spots, and he has had some very nice offensive seasons in the past. If this were to go to arbitration a raise would be in order, so you'd have a 4th outfielder making 2m? And I sincerely hope he is not our starting CF next year. I would be interested in having him back for about half the price.
Prediction-Released, if resigned-1 year, 750k
Mike Rivera is last but certainly not least. The journeyman catcher has backed up a couple seasons in Milwaukee now, and done a pretty good job of it. With starter Jason Kendall's contract up Rivera claims he is ready to trot out there everyday. '09 was a bit of a down year offensively, but generally what you'll see. Not the best average, but decent, hitting with some pop and not afraid to take a walk. I'm not sure who to compare him to, but seeing that most of his Big League roster time has been spent on the bench, I don't see this one getting crazy. Maybe incentives based on games played.
Prediction-1 year, 650k
It for now. Maybe I'll get around to Minor league awards soon. Think I'll do a projected 2010 payroll next, hopefully tomorrow.
Go Packers? Brew Up.
Player-2009 Salary, time eligible
J.J. Hardy-4.65, 3rd (will be again for forth due to time in minors this season.)
Corey Hart-3.25, 2nd
Dave Bush-4, 3rd
Rickie Weeks-2.45, 2nd
Seth McClung-1.6625, 4th
Todd Coffey-.8, 2nd
Jody Gerut-1.775, 3rd
Carlos Villanueva-.477, 1st
Mike Rivera-.415, 1st
There is some good news, which is related to bad news, about the arbitration class this season. Firstly, most of these guys had down seasons, which will mean small raises; with that is the fact that they had down seasons... and the 'Crew didn't make the postseason.
J.J. Hardy faced what was truly his worst season in the big leagues. This eventually lead to a demotion to AAA for long enough to forestall free agency for another year. In 2007 and 2008 Hardy was probably one of the 5 best SS in the NL. While this was a down year, Hardy does have a good track record, and regardless of his hitting he is still a plus fielder. Had he kept up his hitting it would not have been surprising to see Hardy push the 7 million mark. However after this season I doubt he will make 6. That being said, Hardy is almost sure to be traded this off season, and while it's likely he will sign a contract before hand, it should be remembered that he does not have to.
Prediction-1 year, 5.85m
Corey Hart will be up for the second time. Last year Hart and the Brewers had one of the largest gaps in all baseball for contract demands. In the end he signed for the near middle point at 3.25. During last off season the Brewers attempted to lock down Hart long term, and Hart may have made a mistake at that one, as he also settled for his worst season in the Bigs. Unlike Hardy, Hart is a sub par fielder, with speed being his only real plus. That being said Hart had only a 65% success rate swiping 11 bags this year opposed to 77% swiping 23 in the previous two seasons. The Brewers may come back with a something multi-seasonal again, but it seems unlikely Hart would accept at this time with his stock so low. If he had kept pace I would have guessed nearer to 5.5m.
Prediction-1 year, 4m
Dave Bush is entering his third and final season of arbitration. Yep, you guessed it, this guy too is showing up with his worst professional season. Bush, even when not at the top of his game, was a dependable guy. He had give the Brewers 185+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons, and always had a great WHIP, and a wonderful BB/K ratio. While that ratio wasn't bad this year everything else was, including a trip to the DL. After making 2.55 in his first arbitration, and then 4 in his second, if he had kept on pace 5.5-6m would probably have been in order. In all honesty now, I'm not sure what is going to happen. I actually see Bush being traded, mostly for the reason of just not having a spot for him, and I doubt the Brewers will give up on Parra. To non-tender a guy with such a good history seems implausible, regardless of a trade, I see Bush only getting a marginal raise, with maybe some incentives thrown in.
Prediction-1 year, 4.25m
Rickie Weeks is another interesting case. Weeks didn't have a bad season by any means, he just didn't really have one at all. After getting off to one of the best starts in his career, including what appeared to be marked improvements in the field, Weeks was once again (third time) sidelined for the entire season with injury. His .272 avg was 25 points higher than his career average, and he slugged a whopping 100 points over average. All this is really moot though as he played only 37 games. Now Weeks signed a Major League contract when he was drafted which changes dynamics of pay drastically, and in ways that I don't entirely understand. I don't think it should affect his pay next year though... a season where Weeks will probably not see much of a raise either (incentives anyone? Weeks has never played in 130 or more games). GM Doug Melvin reiterated that Weeks is the Brewers 2B, and will not be moving to center, given the quality of play from newcomer Felipe Lopez and the free agency of Mike Cameron, both of those questions have been raised.
Prediction-1 year, 2.75m
Todd Coffey is one man coming off of his best season, and is eligible for the second time. After taking a pay cut in '09 after a very poor '08 campaign, Coffey should be seeing a nice increase. Throwing 80 innings with a 2.90 ERA out of the 'pen, he ranked second in the league with 27 holds and is likely to be a late inning fixture for the Crew again next year. Big raise this year for the big righty. Don't see a multiple year happening because, you know, it's the bullpen... and he's still under team control for another year.
Prediction-1 year, 1.6m
Carlos Villanueva is the first of two Brewers coming into arbitration for the first time. After making 477k this season, Villa is likely in store for a decent raise. One interesting aspect in his case is his bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen and back over his entire career. His 5.34 ERA was his worst ever, building off his previous worst from '08 at 4.07. I would have to imagine Carlos is in the pen for good now, with a 6.52 starting compared to 4.54 ERA relieving ERA. The best comparable player to look at may be teammate McClung. I put together better numbers for Carlos early in his career together with a couple years gone buy to give my guess here. Again, a down season probably saved the Crew some bucks.
Prediction-1 year, 1m.
The aforementioned Seth McClung will be our next topic, entering his final arbitration year. Some people have called McClung a non-tender candidate, but I'm not real sure if I see it. He put up his worst Brewers season, but I think with a move full time to the 'pen (where his ERA was just 3.95 this year) will really help him again. This is where a new pitching coach could make a big deal, as McClung's long time enemy, the walk, came back hard this year. I say bring him back, slot him into that middle innings role and I foresee a sub 4 ERA for a decent price.
Prediction-1 year, 1.85m
Jody Gerut is in the same boat as McClung, third time up and people predicting his release. This one I can see much more easily. After being traded from San Diego for Tony Gwynn Jr. Gerut ended up playing in 85 games for the Brewers, mostly after Hart was injured. He's a decent outfielder who can play all 3 spots, and he has had some very nice offensive seasons in the past. If this were to go to arbitration a raise would be in order, so you'd have a 4th outfielder making 2m? And I sincerely hope he is not our starting CF next year. I would be interested in having him back for about half the price.
Prediction-Released, if resigned-1 year, 750k
Mike Rivera is last but certainly not least. The journeyman catcher has backed up a couple seasons in Milwaukee now, and done a pretty good job of it. With starter Jason Kendall's contract up Rivera claims he is ready to trot out there everyday. '09 was a bit of a down year offensively, but generally what you'll see. Not the best average, but decent, hitting with some pop and not afraid to take a walk. I'm not sure who to compare him to, but seeing that most of his Big League roster time has been spent on the bench, I don't see this one getting crazy. Maybe incentives based on games played.
Prediction-1 year, 650k
It for now. Maybe I'll get around to Minor league awards soon. Think I'll do a projected 2010 payroll next, hopefully tomorrow.
Go Packers? Brew Up.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
2009 Salaries, 2010 Projected
Hey everyone,
Quick rundown of what everybody made in 2009, and what is owed in 2010. This isn't exact obviously with trades and what not, but is generally pretty close.
(Salary in millions of dollars)
Position Name '09 Salary 2010 Salary
SP Suppan 12.75 12.75
CF Cameron 10 FA
3B Hall 6.925 7.15 (Seattle is paying 1.375)
CP Hoffman 6 7.5
C Kendall 5 FA
SP Looper 4.75 6.5 option 1 buyout
SS Hardy 4.65 ARB
RP Riske 4.25 4.5
RF Hart 3.25 ARB
SP Bush 4 ARB
2B Weeks 2.45 ARB
RP McClung 1.6625 ARB
LF Braun .745 1
INF Counsell 1 FA
RP Julio .95 (Released)
RP Coffey .8 ARB
RP Villanueva .477 ARB
SP Parra .426 .426+
C Rivera .415 ARB
SP Gallardo .414 .414+
RP Stetter .4075 .4075+
RP DiFelice .403 .403+
3B McGehee .400 .400+
Midseason Acquisitions
2B Lopez 3.5 FA
RP Weathers 3.5 3.7 option .4 buyout
OF Gerut 1.775 ARB
With assorted other rookies and whatnot on the books, along with portions of signing bonuses being doled out, opening day payroll 2009 was $80m+.
--Here is an explanation of contracts for those of you who don't know--
Players with less than 4 years of service time have contracts decided on by the club. The players listed with a "+" in there '10 column have two or less years of service, and assuming they do not sign a long term deal, will make only marginally more money.
Now players with 4-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. This means that unless a salary can be agreed upon my player and team figures will be exchanged and a court will choose one of those two figures. Since Melvin has been GM no arbitration cases have gone to court. There are some players in this service range who have salaries listed, this is because they have signed long term (i.e. Braun, Fielder). Players entering their first arbitration year are typically due large raises (Fielder got about $6.5m more) because they are going from team control to market fairness levels. During these years players may be non-tendered, or simply not offered a contract. If this is done they are free agents and may sign with any team for any amount of money. Players who were making lots of money and then had some down seasons may be non tendered as arbitration allows only a 20% pay cut at most.
Players past 6 years of service time are no longer under team control if they do not have a contract. However, the team they are leaving still has the right to offer the player arbitration. If the player declines they become free agents, if they accept the process is the same as other arbitration eligible players. The tricky part that comes in is that depending on the quality of the player, then can be designated as a type A or B player (most are nothing at all). These designations give draft picks to the team the player leaves; but, the former team only gets the draft picks if they offer the player arbitration. Type A gives the new signing teams 1st or 2nd (depending on standings) round pick to the former team, plus an extra supplemental round pick (between round 1 and 2); a type B is just rewarded the supplemental round pick, with no penalty to the new team. It can be risky to offer players arbitration, as you may end up with paying more salary than you want, or too many players, however it is risked because teams want the extra draft picks.
--End way too long contract system explanation--
Oh man that was long.
The only Brewers free agents who are worthy of a ranking is Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez, who both look to be type B.
-Cameron will not be offered arbitration, he is currently making $10m, and would get at least a small raise. Way too much money. He has said he would like to come back, and implied that he would take a discount. Maybe not a bad idea as #1 CF prospect for the Brewers in Lorenzo Cain, who is looking like he'll need at least one more season in AAA. If we can resign Cam to maybe something in the 4-5 million range I would be accepting. He still plays plus defense, and can be counted on for .250 avg and 20+hrs.
-Lopez is more interesting. GM Doug Melvin recently reiterated that Rickie Weeks is the Brewers second basemen. However Lopez was signed last year for a reasonable 3.5m, and is coming off of a career season (.310 avg). Seems like the Brewers will take this one up, as I really doubt Lopez would except the offer, and the Crew would come away with an extra pick. But, as always when offering arbitration you need to think of both possibilities. If accepted you get a .300 switch hitter for probably under 5m who can play 2B and SS (though not real well). Picks this deal up.
Because this post is so super long I will come back with a discussion of arbitration eligible players later. I will try to repost some important things, like total salary numbers in every discussion.
That's all for now. I'm spoiling everyone with how much I'm writing. Don't get to used to it, I may actually have something important to do in the future (though probably not).
Brew Up.
Quick rundown of what everybody made in 2009, and what is owed in 2010. This isn't exact obviously with trades and what not, but is generally pretty close.
(Salary in millions of dollars)
Position Name '09 Salary 2010 Salary
SP Suppan 12.75 12.75
CF Cameron 10 FA
3B Hall 6.925 7.15 (Seattle is paying 1.375)
CP Hoffman 6 7.5
C Kendall 5 FA
SP Looper 4.75 6.5 option 1 buyout
SS Hardy 4.65 ARB
RP Riske 4.25 4.5
RF Hart 3.25 ARB
SP Bush 4 ARB
2B Weeks 2.45 ARB
RP McClung 1.6625 ARB
LF Braun .745 1
INF Counsell 1 FA
RP Julio .95 (Released)
RP Coffey .8 ARB
RP Villanueva .477 ARB
SP Parra .426 .426+
C Rivera .415 ARB
SP Gallardo .414 .414+
RP Stetter .4075 .4075+
RP DiFelice .403 .403+
3B McGehee .400 .400+
Midseason Acquisitions
2B Lopez 3.5 FA
RP Weathers 3.5 3.7 option .4 buyout
OF Gerut 1.775 ARB
With assorted other rookies and whatnot on the books, along with portions of signing bonuses being doled out, opening day payroll 2009 was $80m+.
--Here is an explanation of contracts for those of you who don't know--
Players with less than 4 years of service time have contracts decided on by the club. The players listed with a "+" in there '10 column have two or less years of service, and assuming they do not sign a long term deal, will make only marginally more money.
Now players with 4-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. This means that unless a salary can be agreed upon my player and team figures will be exchanged and a court will choose one of those two figures. Since Melvin has been GM no arbitration cases have gone to court. There are some players in this service range who have salaries listed, this is because they have signed long term (i.e. Braun, Fielder). Players entering their first arbitration year are typically due large raises (Fielder got about $6.5m more) because they are going from team control to market fairness levels. During these years players may be non-tendered, or simply not offered a contract. If this is done they are free agents and may sign with any team for any amount of money. Players who were making lots of money and then had some down seasons may be non tendered as arbitration allows only a 20% pay cut at most.
Players past 6 years of service time are no longer under team control if they do not have a contract. However, the team they are leaving still has the right to offer the player arbitration. If the player declines they become free agents, if they accept the process is the same as other arbitration eligible players. The tricky part that comes in is that depending on the quality of the player, then can be designated as a type A or B player (most are nothing at all). These designations give draft picks to the team the player leaves; but, the former team only gets the draft picks if they offer the player arbitration. Type A gives the new signing teams 1st or 2nd (depending on standings) round pick to the former team, plus an extra supplemental round pick (between round 1 and 2); a type B is just rewarded the supplemental round pick, with no penalty to the new team. It can be risky to offer players arbitration, as you may end up with paying more salary than you want, or too many players, however it is risked because teams want the extra draft picks.
--End way too long contract system explanation--
Oh man that was long.
The only Brewers free agents who are worthy of a ranking is Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez, who both look to be type B.
-Cameron will not be offered arbitration, he is currently making $10m, and would get at least a small raise. Way too much money. He has said he would like to come back, and implied that he would take a discount. Maybe not a bad idea as #1 CF prospect for the Brewers in Lorenzo Cain, who is looking like he'll need at least one more season in AAA. If we can resign Cam to maybe something in the 4-5 million range I would be accepting. He still plays plus defense, and can be counted on for .250 avg and 20+hrs.
-Lopez is more interesting. GM Doug Melvin recently reiterated that Rickie Weeks is the Brewers second basemen. However Lopez was signed last year for a reasonable 3.5m, and is coming off of a career season (.310 avg). Seems like the Brewers will take this one up, as I really doubt Lopez would except the offer, and the Crew would come away with an extra pick. But, as always when offering arbitration you need to think of both possibilities. If accepted you get a .300 switch hitter for probably under 5m who can play 2B and SS (though not real well). Picks this deal up.
Because this post is so super long I will come back with a discussion of arbitration eligible players later. I will try to repost some important things, like total salary numbers in every discussion.
That's all for now. I'm spoiling everyone with how much I'm writing. Don't get to used to it, I may actually have something important to do in the future (though probably not).
Brew Up.
Upcoming Free Agents, Arbitration Cases
Hey everyone,
Lets just start out with a look at some Brewers contract issues.
Players that are now entering free agency are:
CF Mike Cameron
OF Frank Catalanotto
INF Craig Counsell
C Jason Kendall
OF Corey Patterson
2B Felipe Lopez
Options:
SP Braden Looper-$6.5m mutual (both sides must exercise) $1m buyout
RP David Weathers-$3.7m club option $400k buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players:
SP Dave Bush
RP Todd Coffey
OF Jody Gerut
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Corey Hart
RHP Seth McClung
C Mike Rivera (first time)*
RHP Carlos Villanueva (first time)*
2B Rickie Weeks
* first time arbitration eligible players are most likely to see a large salary increase.
I want to go through and list salaries, then give some ideas about what kind of numbers we might see for the arbitration guys, and some ideas for the free agents/options we have. Hopefully I can get to that later today.
Chilly outside, baseball warms my heart. Brew up.
Lets just start out with a look at some Brewers contract issues.
Players that are now entering free agency are:
CF Mike Cameron
OF Frank Catalanotto
INF Craig Counsell
C Jason Kendall
OF Corey Patterson
2B Felipe Lopez
Options:
SP Braden Looper-$6.5m mutual (both sides must exercise) $1m buyout
RP David Weathers-$3.7m club option $400k buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players:
SP Dave Bush
RP Todd Coffey
OF Jody Gerut
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Corey Hart
RHP Seth McClung
C Mike Rivera (first time)*
RHP Carlos Villanueva (first time)*
2B Rickie Weeks
* first time arbitration eligible players are most likely to see a large salary increase.
I want to go through and list salaries, then give some ideas about what kind of numbers we might see for the arbitration guys, and some ideas for the free agents/options we have. Hopefully I can get to that later today.
Chilly outside, baseball warms my heart. Brew up.
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