Arbitration Day!

Hey Everyone,

Figures were exchanged, well, right about now with players that have yet to make a deal. However, of the seven Brewers arbitration eligible players Jody Gerut made a one year deal last night, and so far Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks have agreed today. GM Doug Melvin has said that there are no multi-year deals in the works, though something like that may be revisited after one year deals are reached (fairly common, see Brady Clark). Side note: I had a dream last night that Rickie Weeks was traded, I think to the Braves...

So Jody Gerut was eligible for that last time, and he re-upped for $2 million. Now in the predictions I made way back in October I saw the Brewers releasing Gerut, then resigning him for less than $1 m. I seriously underestimated apparently how high the Brewers are on Jody. I guess the money I saw him getting was foolish on my part, but I'm not real sure if he is worth $2m. He will be the 4th outfield and may see a lot of time in center if Gomez struggles. Center is where he is best playing plus defense according to UZR, though he has just average arm strength, below average for right, where he has played his most games. Various projections see him hitting around .260 with 10 HR 40RBI and 6 SB in 340 at bats. If he puts up those numbers I guess it won't be a bad deal. Gerut is a free agent after the season, and received a raise of $225k.

Weeks is a guy we've been waiting for forever, but keeps getting hurt and has yet to play over 130 games in a season. Last year he got off to what was probably the best start of his career only to be shut down less than 40 games in. I predicted a raise to $2.75, and BAM, hit that nail right on the head. Weeks gets a raise of $300k over last season. Weeks remains the Crews second basemen and lead off hitter and has one more year of eligibility.

Carlos Gomez is eligible as a super two (this is his first time, and will be eligible for 4 seasons). I didn't do a prediction here, as the Brewers had not acquired him yet, and frankly I'm not sure where to place the money, as no similar players come to mind off the top of my head, especially as a super two. Money isn't in yet, but I'm going to throw out a real quick guess and say around $1.5 m.

Also, J.J. Hardy has resigned with the Twins for an even $5 million. I guessed over on this one, at $5.85. Whoops, that does seem a little high... I would like to change my stances on a few others. I said Coffey would get $1.6 but now I would move that higher, maybe around $1.9 m. I feel pretty good about Hart's, it might be a little closer to $4.25m and I'm also fairly ok with Bush, though he may be closer to $4.5. Still feeling pretty good about Villa at an even $1m. Note that I was essentially way off in my McClung and Rivera appraisals as they were both released. Mike ended up signing a minor league deal with the Yankees and McClung is still floating around and I'm sure will get much less than the $1.85 I predicted, and may struggle to get a big league contract.

That's it for now, I'll probably have some more posts throughout the day.

Brew Up.

Hardy to Twins for CF Gomez

J.J. Hardy has been traded to the Twins. However, it was not for the starting pitching that many thought it would be for (Glen Perkins' name was mentioned). Instead, it came for the speedy center fielder Carlos Gomez.

Apparently this move does two things: Shows that Mike Cameron will not be back in center, and will allow Rickie Weeks to hit lower in the order.

Gomez is great in the outfield, and has stolen 59 of 80 bases in two seasons. He is arbitration eligible this year after qualifying with Super Two status, thus he will be under team control for another 4 years. Offense production has been another story. Gomez is a .246 career hitter with a .292 obp and a slugging of around .350. In Gomez's only full season ('08) he stuck out 147 times while walking only 25.

Hitting coach Dale Sveum apparently helped hitters to higher averages this past season, with marked increases from guys like Fielder, Braun, and Craig Counsell. Hopefully he can pump Carlos at least into the .260-.270 range.

So that's that. Escobar takes over at short. A young speedy center fielder (I wonder what this will do to the rise of CF prospect Lorenzo Cain). About 14 million dollars off the books (10 for Cam, Hardy was making over 4 with a raise coming) with which to spend on pitching. Interesting to see now who will be traded for pitching help (Gamel, Cain, Parra?) or if Melvin feels like he can free up the payroll enough to sign the needed help. Also on a side note it seems more and more likely that Looper will not be a Brewer next year after strong speculation that he would return. Brewers have 10 days to decide on his and Weathers' options.

My Halloween Birthday Brewers Blog

So it's my B-day, and yes, it's Halloween. In celebration I'm going to randomly talk about some stuff that I would be interested in seeing, trade ideas I may have, and talk about some players that I like.

Mike Cameron-
I like Mike. I hope to see him back in Center next year, but hopefully at a reduced rate (5 mil?) Here is something to think about for Mike. This season he became I believe just the 20th player in the history of the game to hit 250HR and steal 250 bases. Cam only needs 6 more SB, and if he hits just 35 more bombs, he could become just the seventh player ever to do that. To me that is a Hall of Fame career.

Jonathan Lucroy-
This kid can hit, and has seemingly passed Angel Salome on the depth charts to be the Brewers' number one catching prospect. In a story recently on Brewers.com Lucroy said, "I'm not going to settle for being in the Minor Leagues next year..." I'm apposed to bringing back Kendall, and would like to see Angel and Jonathan slug it out in Spring Training, with Rivera backing up once again.


David Bush-
Not a bad guy to throw into a trade somewhere. He has done a nice job of giving the Brewers some innings the last few seasons, but I think his time is over. Gallardo and Suppan are for all intensive purposes locks for the rotation, and it's too early to give up on Parra, there is Narveson and Burns for depth, and GM Doug Melvin is looking to pick up 2 arms this off season. Bye Bye Bushy. He's coming off a poor season but has been durable in the past, trade him for whatever, somebody has to want him...

Craig Counsell-
I'm ready for one more season of Craig. He can't take too much to bring back, and I kind of doubt he wants to play anywhere else. He still picks it at 3 defensive positions, and with his new found hitting ability can contribute at the dish.


This season could actually be pretty damn good. This off season could hypothetically get pretty crazy, and I don't know if Melvin is up for it, but it could kinda get nuts. We have all sorts of people available for trade. J.J. Hardy is one of the more prized SS available and should net something decent. Matt Gamel is a top notch prospect that could now be expendable. Bush is somebody that could go. Hypothetically one of our catching prospects could go. We need two starters and a center fielder... get crazy, have some fun with it. Giants need a 1B and a SS... maybe we could pry away one of those fine starters they have...

That's it for now. Happy Birthday to me. Brew Up.

Hardy for Morrow?

Hey Everyone,

Interesting idea I've heard shuffled around, not a rumor, just an idea. This was brought up by Dave Cameron of Seattle and has been repeated now by a couple other sources.

J.J. Hardy for Braden Morrow

The Mariners need a shortstop. They could get two years of Hardy for a decent price. Brewers desperately need pitching depth. They could get four years of Morrow, one year at super cheap.

It helps that current Mariners GM Zduriencik was the scouting director in Milwaukee when the Brewers drafted Hardy.

Both are coming off of down years. Hardy should still pan out as a plus SS, and the free agent market is not exactly awesome. Morrow has shown flashes of brilliance and can hopefully still pan out in the rotation. New 'Crew pitching coach Peterson may be able to help that out.

I like the idea. I would prefer a more established starter, but the idea of four years of control for very little price makes it extremely tempting. Thoughts?

Brew Up.