Hey everyone,
I have a rumor here for you, Diamondback catcher Chris Snyder to the Brewers. Word on the street is that the D'backs are looking for some pitching, and they could ease the Brewers' current logjam in that category.
There was an attempt to trade Snyder to the Blue Jays over the winter for former Brewer 1B Lyle Overbay but things fell through when the Jays became over Snyder's troubled back.
Snyder is under contact for the next two seasons but is owed a hefty $11.25 million.
Not sure how I feel about that. Doubt the Brewers would want to take on any money, so really unless they send Suppan and some money I don't know how else this would work.
Oh well. Enjoying some nice Wisconsin weather while the Crew is enjoying their Spring Training off day. Less than two weeks now... Brew Up!
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Stolen Bases
Hey everyone. A quick tidbit for you all.
So manager Ken Macha has said that the Brewers will be running more this season, after a near stationary stance on the base paths last season. I've commented on this before, about how there are so many guys on the team capable of 20+ stolen bases. Truly, this includes Braun, Gomez, Hart, Weeks, and Escobar. Actually, all of whom have stolen at least 20 in a season (either big league or minor league).
Put how is this panning out? Well, to date the Brewers are 23 and 4 for stolen base attempts in big league camp. And the only person to be caught stealing that will actually make the team is Counsell. Gomez leads the pack with 7 bags, outfield prospect Lorenzo Cain has 4 and 2B Rickie Weeks has 3. That is a team success rate of 85% (very good), and an average of 1.58 attempts per game.
Last season the Brewers as a team were 78-40, a 66% rate of success. Also, that is an average attempt rate of .73 SBs a game. I know this is just spring training, but I really do the Brewers will both try to steal more bases this year, and have a better success rate. Of the three regulars that are different than last year we exchange Mike Cameron (7 of 10) with Carlos Gomez (14 of 21 last year, 33 of 44 two years ago), J.J. Hardy (0 for 1) with Escobar (who was 42 of 52 in 109 games at AAA last year), and take a bit of a downgrade at catcher with Kendall (7 for 9) to Zaun (0 for 2).
Home runs should be down only marginally from last season, we are probably losing 10 or so at both center and short, but picking up 5 or so at catcher, if Weeks is healthy 10 at second, and maybe even 5 or so at right with a healthy Hart. Homers should be there, and if 78 and 40 jumps to maybe 110 and 30 it will just mean that many more runs... and lets just pray the pitching isn't as bad as last year (it can't be, can it?)
Warming up in Milwaukee, it's almost that time. Brew Up!
So manager Ken Macha has said that the Brewers will be running more this season, after a near stationary stance on the base paths last season. I've commented on this before, about how there are so many guys on the team capable of 20+ stolen bases. Truly, this includes Braun, Gomez, Hart, Weeks, and Escobar. Actually, all of whom have stolen at least 20 in a season (either big league or minor league).
Put how is this panning out? Well, to date the Brewers are 23 and 4 for stolen base attempts in big league camp. And the only person to be caught stealing that will actually make the team is Counsell. Gomez leads the pack with 7 bags, outfield prospect Lorenzo Cain has 4 and 2B Rickie Weeks has 3. That is a team success rate of 85% (very good), and an average of 1.58 attempts per game.
Last season the Brewers as a team were 78-40, a 66% rate of success. Also, that is an average attempt rate of .73 SBs a game. I know this is just spring training, but I really do the Brewers will both try to steal more bases this year, and have a better success rate. Of the three regulars that are different than last year we exchange Mike Cameron (7 of 10) with Carlos Gomez (14 of 21 last year, 33 of 44 two years ago), J.J. Hardy (0 for 1) with Escobar (who was 42 of 52 in 109 games at AAA last year), and take a bit of a downgrade at catcher with Kendall (7 for 9) to Zaun (0 for 2).
Home runs should be down only marginally from last season, we are probably losing 10 or so at both center and short, but picking up 5 or so at catcher, if Weeks is healthy 10 at second, and maybe even 5 or so at right with a healthy Hart. Homers should be there, and if 78 and 40 jumps to maybe 110 and 30 it will just mean that many more runs... and lets just pray the pitching isn't as bad as last year (it can't be, can it?)
Warming up in Milwaukee, it's almost that time. Brew Up!
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Some '09 Stats Fun
Hey Everyone, it's a feature!
I've decided to take a look at some 2009 pitching stats. Nothing too complicated, no WAR or FIP numbers, but some hopefully decent things to think about heading into the new season.
The Best K/BB ratio on the team was headed by 3 relievers: Hoffman, DiFelice, and Coffey (in that order), all of whom came in over 3. The next best guy was (in a limited role) actually Chris Narveson at 2.88. The best of full time starters was perennial leader Dave Bush, at 2.41 Randy Wolf came in at 2.76, up from his career average of 2.29.
The only person on the team (Axford and Swindle don't count) who stuck out more than a batter per inning was Gallardo, who K's almost 10 per 9 innings.
The best ground ball pitchers on the team were Todd Coffey, and then Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Braden Looper. Todd and Soup were near had close to twice as many grounders as fly ball outs, and Manny and Looper were closer to one and a half. On the same note both DiFelice and Narveson had twice as many fly outs as ground outs, with Hoffman and Stetter not too far behind them.
Little less relevant perhaps but still interesting is the wild pitch category. Suppan, though he only throws about 45mph led the team with an even dozen, next was Yo' with that biting curve, followed by... Julio Lugo? Yea, and he only face a whopping 25 batters...
Gallardo had 19 bases stolen against him, and only two runners were thrown out with him on the mound, high leg kick I guess. Best in that category were Suppan and Looper, who allowed only 6 and 5 SBs respectively. Both also had 3 caught stealings. Also, they were the only starters last year who managed any pick offs (2 and 3). Just for comparison and fun, Chris Capuano in his career of 124 games allowed only 13 stolen bases, had 13 men caught, and picked off 28 (roughly 1 in every 5 starts, including 12 in one season, though he did also have 4 balks that year).
Well that's it for now. Have fun, enjoy the game on MLB Network tonight. Brew Up!
I've decided to take a look at some 2009 pitching stats. Nothing too complicated, no WAR or FIP numbers, but some hopefully decent things to think about heading into the new season.
The Best K/BB ratio on the team was headed by 3 relievers: Hoffman, DiFelice, and Coffey (in that order), all of whom came in over 3. The next best guy was (in a limited role) actually Chris Narveson at 2.88. The best of full time starters was perennial leader Dave Bush, at 2.41 Randy Wolf came in at 2.76, up from his career average of 2.29.
The only person on the team (Axford and Swindle don't count) who stuck out more than a batter per inning was Gallardo, who K's almost 10 per 9 innings.
The best ground ball pitchers on the team were Todd Coffey, and then Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Braden Looper. Todd and Soup were near had close to twice as many grounders as fly ball outs, and Manny and Looper were closer to one and a half. On the same note both DiFelice and Narveson had twice as many fly outs as ground outs, with Hoffman and Stetter not too far behind them.
Little less relevant perhaps but still interesting is the wild pitch category. Suppan, though he only throws about 45mph led the team with an even dozen, next was Yo' with that biting curve, followed by... Julio Lugo? Yea, and he only face a whopping 25 batters...
Gallardo had 19 bases stolen against him, and only two runners were thrown out with him on the mound, high leg kick I guess. Best in that category were Suppan and Looper, who allowed only 6 and 5 SBs respectively. Both also had 3 caught stealings. Also, they were the only starters last year who managed any pick offs (2 and 3). Just for comparison and fun, Chris Capuano in his career of 124 games allowed only 13 stolen bases, had 13 men caught, and picked off 28 (roughly 1 in every 5 starts, including 12 in one season, though he did also have 4 balks that year).
Well that's it for now. Have fun, enjoy the game on MLB Network tonight. Brew Up!
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Iribarren Lost on Waivers to Rangers
Yesterday second baseman/utility man Hernan Iribarren was claimed off of waivers by the Texas Rangers. An interesting note here is that earlier in the off season the Brewers claimed utility man Joe Inglett from Texas.
Hernan was actually one of the longest tenured Brewers in the system, having signed out of the Dominican in 2002. He mostly played second with some center field, but had also tried his hand at short and third. He hit well over .300 in his long minor league career but only .185 in two brief Big League stints. I guess that problem with him was his lack of greatness at anything... he hit for average sure, but no real power, not an exceptional fielder, not really a utility guy... Oh well. The Brewers have an experienced utility man in Inglett now (Joe also has over 600 at bats in the Bigs) and Hernan gets to try his hand at making the Texas club, where he may have a decent shot. I kind of got the vibe about Iribarren was somewhat like Gwynn Jr., seemingly a decent player, but lacking certain tools and just never held in a high opinion by the front office...
Hernan was actually one of the longest tenured Brewers in the system, having signed out of the Dominican in 2002. He mostly played second with some center field, but had also tried his hand at short and third. He hit well over .300 in his long minor league career but only .185 in two brief Big League stints. I guess that problem with him was his lack of greatness at anything... he hit for average sure, but no real power, not an exceptional fielder, not really a utility guy... Oh well. The Brewers have an experienced utility man in Inglett now (Joe also has over 600 at bats in the Bigs) and Hernan gets to try his hand at making the Texas club, where he may have a decent shot. I kind of got the vibe about Iribarren was somewhat like Gwynn Jr., seemingly a decent player, but lacking certain tools and just never held in a high opinion by the front office...
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
I'm an awful blogger - Thoughts on Prince
Hey everyone. I pretty much suck. I'm disappointed in myself for my lack of work on this. I still read baseball stuff and think baseball stuff but just haven't put in the time to write baseball stuff. I've missed a bunch of good stuff, and have never gotten around to like any of the features that I wanted to do. I was really excited to write about the Jim Edmonds signing but never did.
Oh well. I'm back, somewhat. I'm still really busy with school, but I'm between jobs now so hopefully that will give some more time. My main topic today is concerning a Prince Fielder extension, which is probably a main topic for almost everybody in the whole world.
Prince is currently under contract for the 2010 season at a fairly reasonable $10.5 million. He is eligible for arbitration (and therefore under team control) for one more season.
The bottom line here is that if Prince Fielder is not signed to an extension he MUST be traded. The time frame could still be argued about, but it must happen. This year still has some hope so I don't think you could find many people shouting for his current trade (even at this years deadline...). Next off season makes the most sense to me, as it would net a larger return than waiting until the trade deadline, and would give us one more calender year or so to get an extension done. To let Fielder fly for just the draft picks would be irresponsible, and Fielder would net a Sexon like haul, and for those of you who don't know that deal fueled much of the team for some time, and its repercussions run to the present (Sexon got Overbay (amongst others), Overbay got Bush, Jackson (who was sent to Cleveland in the Sabathia deal) and Gross (who was sent to Tampa in exchange for the highly touted Butler).
So here comes my proposal for a Fielder contract. 4 years-$80 million dollars. Could structure it something like $16m, $20, $20, $20, then a $25m mutual option with a $4m buyout. I also think something just like 4 years $20m per would be fine, or 18, 20, 20, 22. Mutual options kind of seem like they're the new thing right now...
My theory here is it gives the Brewers an additional 3 years breathing room within which they can work with Wolf, Gallardo, Parra, and some of these up-and-comers like Axford, Butler, and maybe even Jeffress. However it does not get them stuck into something too long term. Why would Fielders agent Scott Boras be OK with this? Well for a couple of reasons. There is an absolute glut of free agent 1st basemen in the upcoming two years (Gonzalez, Martinez, Lee, Berkman, Pujols, Overbay, and Dunn amongst others...). Also, Prince is young enough that after this four year deal would only be 30 (maybe 31...) and should actually be entering his prime years, where another 4+ year deal would seem very possible.
From a money standpoint for the Crew I don't think it would be too big of a deal. Yes, I was one of the few people out there who was opposed to the Sabathia deal, and it was solely for money reasons. However, GM Doug Melvin has echoed my thoughts some what when he talks about the difference between hitters and pitchers. Also very important is the combination of Braun and Prince in the 3-4 holes. In 3 years or so the Brewers could still be largely home grown talent and still be raking. A lineup of something like Cain, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Lawrie, Green/Gamel, Lucroy would be pretty nice, and three years from now many of those guys would not even be in arbitration yet, and when they are getting ready to get to that point, and hopefully coming into their own as hitters Prince will be ready to say bye-bye after his deal. Also I'm sure everyone remembers that we have over $20m coming off the books next year with Suppan, and Riske departing, and the end of the Bill Hall payments. Beyond Braun there is nobody long term except for Wolf, who has 3 years on his deal, and Hawkins who has 2011.
I had some more points to work with but this is getting pretty long and I think I hit my main ones. I'm going to try and get more stuff done, I feel guilty writing on here when I should be writing papers...
Have fun listening to Uek and the Crew, it may be crummy in Miltown, the weather may be awful in AZ too, but spring training still warms me on the inside. Brew Up!
Oh well. I'm back, somewhat. I'm still really busy with school, but I'm between jobs now so hopefully that will give some more time. My main topic today is concerning a Prince Fielder extension, which is probably a main topic for almost everybody in the whole world.
Prince is currently under contract for the 2010 season at a fairly reasonable $10.5 million. He is eligible for arbitration (and therefore under team control) for one more season.
The bottom line here is that if Prince Fielder is not signed to an extension he MUST be traded. The time frame could still be argued about, but it must happen. This year still has some hope so I don't think you could find many people shouting for his current trade (even at this years deadline...). Next off season makes the most sense to me, as it would net a larger return than waiting until the trade deadline, and would give us one more calender year or so to get an extension done. To let Fielder fly for just the draft picks would be irresponsible, and Fielder would net a Sexon like haul, and for those of you who don't know that deal fueled much of the team for some time, and its repercussions run to the present (Sexon got Overbay (amongst others), Overbay got Bush, Jackson (who was sent to Cleveland in the Sabathia deal) and Gross (who was sent to Tampa in exchange for the highly touted Butler).
So here comes my proposal for a Fielder contract. 4 years-$80 million dollars. Could structure it something like $16m, $20, $20, $20, then a $25m mutual option with a $4m buyout. I also think something just like 4 years $20m per would be fine, or 18, 20, 20, 22. Mutual options kind of seem like they're the new thing right now...
My theory here is it gives the Brewers an additional 3 years breathing room within which they can work with Wolf, Gallardo, Parra, and some of these up-and-comers like Axford, Butler, and maybe even Jeffress. However it does not get them stuck into something too long term. Why would Fielders agent Scott Boras be OK with this? Well for a couple of reasons. There is an absolute glut of free agent 1st basemen in the upcoming two years (Gonzalez, Martinez, Lee, Berkman, Pujols, Overbay, and Dunn amongst others...). Also, Prince is young enough that after this four year deal would only be 30 (maybe 31...) and should actually be entering his prime years, where another 4+ year deal would seem very possible.
From a money standpoint for the Crew I don't think it would be too big of a deal. Yes, I was one of the few people out there who was opposed to the Sabathia deal, and it was solely for money reasons. However, GM Doug Melvin has echoed my thoughts some what when he talks about the difference between hitters and pitchers. Also very important is the combination of Braun and Prince in the 3-4 holes. In 3 years or so the Brewers could still be largely home grown talent and still be raking. A lineup of something like Cain, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Lawrie, Green/Gamel, Lucroy would be pretty nice, and three years from now many of those guys would not even be in arbitration yet, and when they are getting ready to get to that point, and hopefully coming into their own as hitters Prince will be ready to say bye-bye after his deal. Also I'm sure everyone remembers that we have over $20m coming off the books next year with Suppan, and Riske departing, and the end of the Bill Hall payments. Beyond Braun there is nobody long term except for Wolf, who has 3 years on his deal, and Hawkins who has 2011.
I had some more points to work with but this is getting pretty long and I think I hit my main ones. I'm going to try and get more stuff done, I feel guilty writing on here when I should be writing papers...
Have fun listening to Uek and the Crew, it may be crummy in Miltown, the weather may be awful in AZ too, but spring training still warms me on the inside. Brew Up!
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Coffey Avoids Arbitration, Winter Warm-Up
Hey Everyone,
The big righty Todd Coffey signed a one year contract today to avoid arbitration. It was the work horse relievers second time eligible and got a nice raise from $800k to $2.025 m, which was $50k shy of the middle point of teams and his purposed salaries. He can earn that $50k in appearance based incentives. So even though my initial guess was $1.6m, my second of $1.9m was close enough for me, and I was right on about the team being closer and Todd settling south of the $2.1 m mark.
Funny side note, Coffey is actually making $2,025,002 and made $800,002 last season. This is apparently because he likes even numbers... not zero though... he is number 60.
The schedule for this years Winter Warm-Up has been officially released and it looks like fun. The autograph session has a bunch of good names but is headlined by Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Trevor Hoffman. There will be Q & A sessions with Rick Peterson and Ken Macha, one with owner Mark Attanasio, GM Doug Melvin, and Asst. GM Gord Ash, and a third with former Brewers Jeff Cirillo, Greg Vaughn, and Gorman Thomas. Also, new comer Carlos Gomez, who will be roaming center this year for the Crew will be officially introduced to the press.
I wonder when Davis' press conference will be... No word yet but I wouldn't be surprised if it were Friday, the day in which he will be taking his physical.
That's it for now. More signings to come I'm sure. Brew Up.
The big righty Todd Coffey signed a one year contract today to avoid arbitration. It was the work horse relievers second time eligible and got a nice raise from $800k to $2.025 m, which was $50k shy of the middle point of teams and his purposed salaries. He can earn that $50k in appearance based incentives. So even though my initial guess was $1.6m, my second of $1.9m was close enough for me, and I was right on about the team being closer and Todd settling south of the $2.1 m mark.
Funny side note, Coffey is actually making $2,025,002 and made $800,002 last season. This is apparently because he likes even numbers... not zero though... he is number 60.
The schedule for this years Winter Warm-Up has been officially released and it looks like fun. The autograph session has a bunch of good names but is headlined by Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Trevor Hoffman. There will be Q & A sessions with Rick Peterson and Ken Macha, one with owner Mark Attanasio, GM Doug Melvin, and Asst. GM Gord Ash, and a third with former Brewers Jeff Cirillo, Greg Vaughn, and Gorman Thomas. Also, new comer Carlos Gomez, who will be roaming center this year for the Crew will be officially introduced to the press.
I wonder when Davis' press conference will be... No word yet but I wouldn't be surprised if it were Friday, the day in which he will be taking his physical.
That's it for now. More signings to come I'm sure. Brew Up.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Dougy D back in Miltown!
The Brewers have signed lefty Doug Davis to a one year deal with a mutual option for a second year. He will make $4.25 million this season with a $6.5 m option that has a $1 m buyout, in addition he can earn an extra million each year with incentives (they are called likely, probably starts and innings for the durable lefty). This is Davis' second stint with Milwaukee and will slot into the rotation behind young Yovani Gallardo, fellow newcomer Randy Wolf, and in front of two of the three of Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Dave Bush.
Exciting news. I'll come back later with an article about how this will affect the team and so on. Brew Up.
Exciting news. I'll come back later with an article about how this will affect the team and so on. Brew Up.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Numbers Exchanged
Hey Everyone,
So first and foremost is the Carlos Gomez deal, which in his first (of what will be four) year of arbitration. The young right handed hitting center fielder will receive $1.1 million after making a shade under $5ook last year..
Now there are 4 players left that have exchanged figures.
First up is Corey Hart. Hart had the largest differences of all Brew Crew players last season and has another big one this year. My old timey guess put his number at $4m, and my new one saw it a bit higher, and higher it will be with the team submitting $4.15m and Corey coming in at $4.8m, putting the middle point at $4.475. That would be a pretty fine raise from his salary of $3.25 last year.
Next is righty reliever Carlos Villanueva, also up for the first time. My guess which I stuck by was an even $1 m, and it's looking like I may be very close on this one. The Brewers are offering $800k with Carlos looking for $1.075m. That's a middle point of $937,500. If Villa' can put together a good season out of the 'pen (where he does a much better job than when he's starting) this should be a pretty good deal.
We'll head over now to the only starter on the list, righty Dave Bush. Last year was Bush's worst, and pitched only 114.1 innings, his fewest since he broke into the Bigs. Dave made $4 million last year and after a stint on the DL and an ERA over 6 I predicted a raise to $4.25 m, then upped it more recently to $4.5. Both are pretty darn good, though the lighter choice may have been the better one. The team threw out $4.125 with Bushy going for $4.45, middle point of $4.2875. Though last season was awful I think people generally accept some kind of return to form. Prior to '09 Bush had a 4.56 ERA in 3 seasons spanning 581.1 innings for the Brewers.
Last but certainly not least is another righty Todd Coffey. Coffey has the position of being that largest gap in numbers this season coming in at three quarters of a million dollars. Coffey has requested $2.45 m with the Brewers at $1.7 m. My original prediction was a measly $1.6, but my new one was much closer at $1.9. The middle point between the two would be $2.075 m. Todd will be trying to cash in on a great last season in which he lead the League in relief innings (83.2) and had a 2.90 ERA. However history must be taken into account as well, that helps someone like Dave Bush, but could hurt Todd, as this was his break out year. This was to me a surprisingly good off-season for relievers with guys like Brandon Lyon getting a 3 year $15 m deal, so that could help, but overall I think the Brewers are in the right, and they should settle south of the $2.1 mil mark.
Well that's it for now. The team should be working on this pretty solid for the next while, though Doug Melvin actually doesn't handle this so he should be able to keep an eye out for that pitcher. Something to keep in mind is that these numbers have nothing to do with available payroll, as the organization has it's budget set up with these estimated in advance. There won't be any long term talk until these are finished, then maybe a deal for Prince Fielder or Gallardo may be visited, but I wouldn't expect that yet. Take it easy.
Brew Up.
So first and foremost is the Carlos Gomez deal, which in his first (of what will be four) year of arbitration. The young right handed hitting center fielder will receive $1.1 million after making a shade under $5ook last year..
Now there are 4 players left that have exchanged figures.
First up is Corey Hart. Hart had the largest differences of all Brew Crew players last season and has another big one this year. My old timey guess put his number at $4m, and my new one saw it a bit higher, and higher it will be with the team submitting $4.15m and Corey coming in at $4.8m, putting the middle point at $4.475. That would be a pretty fine raise from his salary of $3.25 last year.
Next is righty reliever Carlos Villanueva, also up for the first time. My guess which I stuck by was an even $1 m, and it's looking like I may be very close on this one. The Brewers are offering $800k with Carlos looking for $1.075m. That's a middle point of $937,500. If Villa' can put together a good season out of the 'pen (where he does a much better job than when he's starting) this should be a pretty good deal.
We'll head over now to the only starter on the list, righty Dave Bush. Last year was Bush's worst, and pitched only 114.1 innings, his fewest since he broke into the Bigs. Dave made $4 million last year and after a stint on the DL and an ERA over 6 I predicted a raise to $4.25 m, then upped it more recently to $4.5. Both are pretty darn good, though the lighter choice may have been the better one. The team threw out $4.125 with Bushy going for $4.45, middle point of $4.2875. Though last season was awful I think people generally accept some kind of return to form. Prior to '09 Bush had a 4.56 ERA in 3 seasons spanning 581.1 innings for the Brewers.
Last but certainly not least is another righty Todd Coffey. Coffey has the position of being that largest gap in numbers this season coming in at three quarters of a million dollars. Coffey has requested $2.45 m with the Brewers at $1.7 m. My original prediction was a measly $1.6, but my new one was much closer at $1.9. The middle point between the two would be $2.075 m. Todd will be trying to cash in on a great last season in which he lead the League in relief innings (83.2) and had a 2.90 ERA. However history must be taken into account as well, that helps someone like Dave Bush, but could hurt Todd, as this was his break out year. This was to me a surprisingly good off-season for relievers with guys like Brandon Lyon getting a 3 year $15 m deal, so that could help, but overall I think the Brewers are in the right, and they should settle south of the $2.1 mil mark.
Well that's it for now. The team should be working on this pretty solid for the next while, though Doug Melvin actually doesn't handle this so he should be able to keep an eye out for that pitcher. Something to keep in mind is that these numbers have nothing to do with available payroll, as the organization has it's budget set up with these estimated in advance. There won't be any long term talk until these are finished, then maybe a deal for Prince Fielder or Gallardo may be visited, but I wouldn't expect that yet. Take it easy.
Brew Up.
Arbitration Day!
Hey Everyone,
Figures were exchanged, well, right about now with players that have yet to make a deal. However, of the seven Brewers arbitration eligible players Jody Gerut made a one year deal last night, and so far Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks have agreed today. GM Doug Melvin has said that there are no multi-year deals in the works, though something like that may be revisited after one year deals are reached (fairly common, see Brady Clark). Side note: I had a dream last night that Rickie Weeks was traded, I think to the Braves...
So Jody Gerut was eligible for that last time, and he re-upped for $2 million. Now in the predictions I made way back in October I saw the Brewers releasing Gerut, then resigning him for less than $1 m. I seriously underestimated apparently how high the Brewers are on Jody. I guess the money I saw him getting was foolish on my part, but I'm not real sure if he is worth $2m. He will be the 4th outfield and may see a lot of time in center if Gomez struggles. Center is where he is best playing plus defense according to UZR, though he has just average arm strength, below average for right, where he has played his most games. Various projections see him hitting around .260 with 10 HR 40RBI and 6 SB in 340 at bats. If he puts up those numbers I guess it won't be a bad deal. Gerut is a free agent after the season, and received a raise of $225k.
Weeks is a guy we've been waiting for forever, but keeps getting hurt and has yet to play over 130 games in a season. Last year he got off to what was probably the best start of his career only to be shut down less than 40 games in. I predicted a raise to $2.75, and BAM, hit that nail right on the head. Weeks gets a raise of $300k over last season. Weeks remains the Crews second basemen and lead off hitter and has one more year of eligibility.
Carlos Gomez is eligible as a super two (this is his first time, and will be eligible for 4 seasons). I didn't do a prediction here, as the Brewers had not acquired him yet, and frankly I'm not sure where to place the money, as no similar players come to mind off the top of my head, especially as a super two. Money isn't in yet, but I'm going to throw out a real quick guess and say around $1.5 m.
Also, J.J. Hardy has resigned with the Twins for an even $5 million. I guessed over on this one, at $5.85. Whoops, that does seem a little high... I would like to change my stances on a few others. I said Coffey would get $1.6 but now I would move that higher, maybe around $1.9 m. I feel pretty good about Hart's, it might be a little closer to $4.25m and I'm also fairly ok with Bush, though he may be closer to $4.5. Still feeling pretty good about Villa at an even $1m. Note that I was essentially way off in my McClung and Rivera appraisals as they were both released. Mike ended up signing a minor league deal with the Yankees and McClung is still floating around and I'm sure will get much less than the $1.85 I predicted, and may struggle to get a big league contract.
That's it for now, I'll probably have some more posts throughout the day.
Brew Up.
Figures were exchanged, well, right about now with players that have yet to make a deal. However, of the seven Brewers arbitration eligible players Jody Gerut made a one year deal last night, and so far Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks have agreed today. GM Doug Melvin has said that there are no multi-year deals in the works, though something like that may be revisited after one year deals are reached (fairly common, see Brady Clark). Side note: I had a dream last night that Rickie Weeks was traded, I think to the Braves...
So Jody Gerut was eligible for that last time, and he re-upped for $2 million. Now in the predictions I made way back in October I saw the Brewers releasing Gerut, then resigning him for less than $1 m. I seriously underestimated apparently how high the Brewers are on Jody. I guess the money I saw him getting was foolish on my part, but I'm not real sure if he is worth $2m. He will be the 4th outfield and may see a lot of time in center if Gomez struggles. Center is where he is best playing plus defense according to UZR, though he has just average arm strength, below average for right, where he has played his most games. Various projections see him hitting around .260 with 10 HR 40RBI and 6 SB in 340 at bats. If he puts up those numbers I guess it won't be a bad deal. Gerut is a free agent after the season, and received a raise of $225k.
Weeks is a guy we've been waiting for forever, but keeps getting hurt and has yet to play over 130 games in a season. Last year he got off to what was probably the best start of his career only to be shut down less than 40 games in. I predicted a raise to $2.75, and BAM, hit that nail right on the head. Weeks gets a raise of $300k over last season. Weeks remains the Crews second basemen and lead off hitter and has one more year of eligibility.
Carlos Gomez is eligible as a super two (this is his first time, and will be eligible for 4 seasons). I didn't do a prediction here, as the Brewers had not acquired him yet, and frankly I'm not sure where to place the money, as no similar players come to mind off the top of my head, especially as a super two. Money isn't in yet, but I'm going to throw out a real quick guess and say around $1.5 m.
Also, J.J. Hardy has resigned with the Twins for an even $5 million. I guessed over on this one, at $5.85. Whoops, that does seem a little high... I would like to change my stances on a few others. I said Coffey would get $1.6 but now I would move that higher, maybe around $1.9 m. I feel pretty good about Hart's, it might be a little closer to $4.25m and I'm also fairly ok with Bush, though he may be closer to $4.5. Still feeling pretty good about Villa at an even $1m. Note that I was essentially way off in my McClung and Rivera appraisals as they were both released. Mike ended up signing a minor league deal with the Yankees and McClung is still floating around and I'm sure will get much less than the $1.85 I predicted, and may struggle to get a big league contract.
That's it for now, I'll probably have some more posts throughout the day.
Brew Up.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Arbitration Looms, 2 Week Recap
Hey Everyone,
So quite a few things worthy of mention have happened in the two weeks since my last post, but apparently I write more often when school is in session because I'm just avoiding doing school work. Oh well, let's get to this recap, and then talk about the looming arbitration.
This was more than two weeks ago now but I still want to bring it up, that Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors.com called the signing of Gregg Zaun one of the best of the offseason. Part of this might have been related to the fact that two of his worst signings were former Brewer Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, who each got two years and $6 million. Not that Zaun is an awesome pick up or anything but the Crew got exactly what they needed in him, a catcher to take a one year deal, who hits better than Kendall, good signing. Side Note: Former Brewers CF Mike Cameron's two year $15.5 mm deal with the Red Sox was also listed amongst the best.
Former Brewers Manager Ned Yost is back in baseball after spending last season relaxing. Everyone should remember that Yost was fired with 12 games left in the season in 2008, the latest in the year a manager has ever been fired for a team entering the playoffs. Yost will assume a front office position as a special assistant to the Baseball Operations department. I think Yost was a pretty crummy manager but must admit that he did well with the young guys during his early years, a role in player development for a young team like the Royals sounds like a good fit for him.
The Brewers have signed former Reds outfielder Norris Hopper to a minor league deal. Somewhat surprisingly this deal does not include an invitation to Big League Camp in spring training, so it would appear that Hopper will not be competing for a back up outfield spot. Norris did not play in the Bigs last year, but had decent success from '06-'08 with the Reds, playing decent defense at all 3 outfield spots and hitting a combined .316 with 1 HR and 17 SB in 400 at bats. His worst season was 2008, but he had a decent year in AAA last season split between 3 organizations. He bats righty and should supply some pinch hitter insurance in case guys like Oeltjen don't pan out (see Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson last year...).
The search for another starting pitcher apparently continues... The seemingly never ended saga of the pending signing of Mark Mulder continues. The front office along with new pitching coach Peterson were all in Arizona last week to talk pitching and went over to see Mulder. However, Mark has not progressed far enough to throw off a mound yet (something I thought he had been doing for months). GM Doug Melvin said he plans to revisit Mulder some time in the future. This kind of feels like one of those things were the pitching coach is saying take a chance but Doug is just not feeling it. Mulder will only command a minor league deal.
There have been multiple reports however that the Brewers will indeed sign one more "real" pitcher before the season begins. The number one name that keeps coming up is former Brewer, the lefty Doug Davis. As recent as the last week Melvin has been said to been keeping up with Davis' agent. The other is a man with a long connection to the Brewers this off season as well, Jarrod Washburn. Jarrod is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to pitch close to home (Minnesota or Milwaukee). Interestingly enough he turned down an offer from the Twins already this off season reported to be near $5 million. I don't see the Brewers wanting to get near that number, so it's probably less of a close to home thing and more of a regular, "I want more money" thing. I just kind of see Davis being signed as I haven't heard of much interest his way. I doubt an incentive laden deal would happen, as he is one of the more durable pitchers in the game. One name that hasn't been brought up much is John Garland, considered to be one of the best left with the two previously named men, Garland is the only righty of the group.
So now on to arbitration, which is used to determine salaries for players with between three and five years of experience (or occasionally two). The Brewers have seven players eligible, down from eight after the non-tendering of Mike Rivera and Seth McClung, plus the addition of Carlos Gomez (who is a Super 2). All seven have filed, which is really just a formality. Tomorrow, unless a deal can be reached beforehand, numbers will be exchanged between the clubs and players. There should be a flurry of signings today to avoid this process, and then there should be plenty of signings after the exchange, as the middle point is quite often decided upon as fair. It was reported that there is more than one Brewers player who is close to avoiding arbitration. Hart may be one, as he is coming off a disappointing year and I see him gaining little in the process, and may be more benefited by signing an incentive laden deal.
More on Arby fun time tomorrow. Peace for now. Brew Up.
So quite a few things worthy of mention have happened in the two weeks since my last post, but apparently I write more often when school is in session because I'm just avoiding doing school work. Oh well, let's get to this recap, and then talk about the looming arbitration.
This was more than two weeks ago now but I still want to bring it up, that Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors.com called the signing of Gregg Zaun one of the best of the offseason. Part of this might have been related to the fact that two of his worst signings were former Brewer Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, who each got two years and $6 million. Not that Zaun is an awesome pick up or anything but the Crew got exactly what they needed in him, a catcher to take a one year deal, who hits better than Kendall, good signing. Side Note: Former Brewers CF Mike Cameron's two year $15.5 mm deal with the Red Sox was also listed amongst the best.
Former Brewers Manager Ned Yost is back in baseball after spending last season relaxing. Everyone should remember that Yost was fired with 12 games left in the season in 2008, the latest in the year a manager has ever been fired for a team entering the playoffs. Yost will assume a front office position as a special assistant to the Baseball Operations department. I think Yost was a pretty crummy manager but must admit that he did well with the young guys during his early years, a role in player development for a young team like the Royals sounds like a good fit for him.
The Brewers have signed former Reds outfielder Norris Hopper to a minor league deal. Somewhat surprisingly this deal does not include an invitation to Big League Camp in spring training, so it would appear that Hopper will not be competing for a back up outfield spot. Norris did not play in the Bigs last year, but had decent success from '06-'08 with the Reds, playing decent defense at all 3 outfield spots and hitting a combined .316 with 1 HR and 17 SB in 400 at bats. His worst season was 2008, but he had a decent year in AAA last season split between 3 organizations. He bats righty and should supply some pinch hitter insurance in case guys like Oeltjen don't pan out (see Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson last year...).
The search for another starting pitcher apparently continues... The seemingly never ended saga of the pending signing of Mark Mulder continues. The front office along with new pitching coach Peterson were all in Arizona last week to talk pitching and went over to see Mulder. However, Mark has not progressed far enough to throw off a mound yet (something I thought he had been doing for months). GM Doug Melvin said he plans to revisit Mulder some time in the future. This kind of feels like one of those things were the pitching coach is saying take a chance but Doug is just not feeling it. Mulder will only command a minor league deal.
There have been multiple reports however that the Brewers will indeed sign one more "real" pitcher before the season begins. The number one name that keeps coming up is former Brewer, the lefty Doug Davis. As recent as the last week Melvin has been said to been keeping up with Davis' agent. The other is a man with a long connection to the Brewers this off season as well, Jarrod Washburn. Jarrod is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to pitch close to home (Minnesota or Milwaukee). Interestingly enough he turned down an offer from the Twins already this off season reported to be near $5 million. I don't see the Brewers wanting to get near that number, so it's probably less of a close to home thing and more of a regular, "I want more money" thing. I just kind of see Davis being signed as I haven't heard of much interest his way. I doubt an incentive laden deal would happen, as he is one of the more durable pitchers in the game. One name that hasn't been brought up much is John Garland, considered to be one of the best left with the two previously named men, Garland is the only righty of the group.
So now on to arbitration, which is used to determine salaries for players with between three and five years of experience (or occasionally two). The Brewers have seven players eligible, down from eight after the non-tendering of Mike Rivera and Seth McClung, plus the addition of Carlos Gomez (who is a Super 2). All seven have filed, which is really just a formality. Tomorrow, unless a deal can be reached beforehand, numbers will be exchanged between the clubs and players. There should be a flurry of signings today to avoid this process, and then there should be plenty of signings after the exchange, as the middle point is quite often decided upon as fair. It was reported that there is more than one Brewers player who is close to avoiding arbitration. Hart may be one, as he is coming off a disappointing year and I see him gaining little in the process, and may be more benefited by signing an incentive laden deal.
More on Arby fun time tomorrow. Peace for now. Brew Up.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Merry Xmas, Happy New Year, So on...
Hey Everyone,
It's been a while, but then again it's been pretty slow. So the opinion that came through the Fox sports network is the the Brewers will almost definitely be signing one of the trio of Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Jarrod Washburn. All three bring a bit of the same to the table, inning eaters kind of guys. Washburn maybe has the most upside with the great first half last season but I would personally prefer Garland, the only righty of the group who throws 200 innings every season.
Word on the street is that the signing of lefty Mark Mulder to a deal should be coming soon. Brewers front office personal are in Arizona next week and it seems likely that they will meet with and probably sign Mulder then. Mark hasn't pitched much since 2006 after a slew of injuries, but is a two time All-Star and a runner up in Cy Young voting. This will likely be a minor league deal to add some depth. A fine low-risk high-reward deal that was likely made when the Brewers obtained new pitching coach Rick Peterson, who worked with Mulder during the off season.
Interesting note: Apparently former Brewer Bill Hall will be on the move again. After trading him to the Mariners last year the Brewers are still picking up most of Bill's $8.4 million owed to him next year, but it seems as though he may be headed to Boston as the M's are set to acquire Casey Kotchman. It seems like a few GMs think Hall has something left in the tank, and will likely see a utility role supplying some righty pop (he still hits lefties pretty well) and playing pretty decent defense at 3rd and SS and some history in the outfield.
Lastly, another rumor hot off the press is the Twins have apparently made an offer to Jarrod Washburn. Washburn is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to finish his career playing close to home. This would seemingly create some pitching depth for the Twins who need a third basemen, which of course would lead to speculation that would be sending Matt Gamel to Minnesota for perhaps Carl Pavano, who the Brewers supposedly had some interest in before he accepted arbitration.
Ok, that's it for now. I don't know when I'll be getting new articles going, hopefully soon. Think warm thoughts. Brew Up.
It's been a while, but then again it's been pretty slow. So the opinion that came through the Fox sports network is the the Brewers will almost definitely be signing one of the trio of Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Jarrod Washburn. All three bring a bit of the same to the table, inning eaters kind of guys. Washburn maybe has the most upside with the great first half last season but I would personally prefer Garland, the only righty of the group who throws 200 innings every season.
Word on the street is that the signing of lefty Mark Mulder to a deal should be coming soon. Brewers front office personal are in Arizona next week and it seems likely that they will meet with and probably sign Mulder then. Mark hasn't pitched much since 2006 after a slew of injuries, but is a two time All-Star and a runner up in Cy Young voting. This will likely be a minor league deal to add some depth. A fine low-risk high-reward deal that was likely made when the Brewers obtained new pitching coach Rick Peterson, who worked with Mulder during the off season.
Interesting note: Apparently former Brewer Bill Hall will be on the move again. After trading him to the Mariners last year the Brewers are still picking up most of Bill's $8.4 million owed to him next year, but it seems as though he may be headed to Boston as the M's are set to acquire Casey Kotchman. It seems like a few GMs think Hall has something left in the tank, and will likely see a utility role supplying some righty pop (he still hits lefties pretty well) and playing pretty decent defense at 3rd and SS and some history in the outfield.
Lastly, another rumor hot off the press is the Twins have apparently made an offer to Jarrod Washburn. Washburn is a Wisconsin native that has said he would like to finish his career playing close to home. This would seemingly create some pitching depth for the Twins who need a third basemen, which of course would lead to speculation that would be sending Matt Gamel to Minnesota for perhaps Carl Pavano, who the Brewers supposedly had some interest in before he accepted arbitration.
Ok, that's it for now. I don't know when I'll be getting new articles going, hopefully soon. Think warm thoughts. Brew Up.
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