Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Arbitration Day!

Hey Everyone,

Figures were exchanged, well, right about now with players that have yet to make a deal. However, of the seven Brewers arbitration eligible players Jody Gerut made a one year deal last night, and so far Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks have agreed today. GM Doug Melvin has said that there are no multi-year deals in the works, though something like that may be revisited after one year deals are reached (fairly common, see Brady Clark). Side note: I had a dream last night that Rickie Weeks was traded, I think to the Braves...

So Jody Gerut was eligible for that last time, and he re-upped for $2 million. Now in the predictions I made way back in October I saw the Brewers releasing Gerut, then resigning him for less than $1 m. I seriously underestimated apparently how high the Brewers are on Jody. I guess the money I saw him getting was foolish on my part, but I'm not real sure if he is worth $2m. He will be the 4th outfield and may see a lot of time in center if Gomez struggles. Center is where he is best playing plus defense according to UZR, though he has just average arm strength, below average for right, where he has played his most games. Various projections see him hitting around .260 with 10 HR 40RBI and 6 SB in 340 at bats. If he puts up those numbers I guess it won't be a bad deal. Gerut is a free agent after the season, and received a raise of $225k.

Weeks is a guy we've been waiting for forever, but keeps getting hurt and has yet to play over 130 games in a season. Last year he got off to what was probably the best start of his career only to be shut down less than 40 games in. I predicted a raise to $2.75, and BAM, hit that nail right on the head. Weeks gets a raise of $300k over last season. Weeks remains the Crews second basemen and lead off hitter and has one more year of eligibility.

Carlos Gomez is eligible as a super two (this is his first time, and will be eligible for 4 seasons). I didn't do a prediction here, as the Brewers had not acquired him yet, and frankly I'm not sure where to place the money, as no similar players come to mind off the top of my head, especially as a super two. Money isn't in yet, but I'm going to throw out a real quick guess and say around $1.5 m.

Also, J.J. Hardy has resigned with the Twins for an even $5 million. I guessed over on this one, at $5.85. Whoops, that does seem a little high... I would like to change my stances on a few others. I said Coffey would get $1.6 but now I would move that higher, maybe around $1.9 m. I feel pretty good about Hart's, it might be a little closer to $4.25m and I'm also fairly ok with Bush, though he may be closer to $4.5. Still feeling pretty good about Villa at an even $1m. Note that I was essentially way off in my McClung and Rivera appraisals as they were both released. Mike ended up signing a minor league deal with the Yankees and McClung is still floating around and I'm sure will get much less than the $1.85 I predicted, and may struggle to get a big league contract.

That's it for now, I'll probably have some more posts throughout the day.

Brew Up.

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