Deals finalized, Pitching Breakdown

Randy Wolf passed his physical and was introduced to the press today. I just have to say what a classy fellow. About as well spoken as one can be, and really appears to be a student of the game. Say what you want about the Brewers signing older players, but guys like Jeff Suppan, Jason Kendall, and Randy Wolf are some of the best people I have seen talk, especially when it comes to the subject of baseball, which definitely is something good to have around when 7 of your position players are under 25...

So the breakdown on Wolf's contract is out too. It plays out as 9.25 in '10, 9.5 in both '11 and '12 with a $10 million club option for 2013 that comes with a $1.5 million buyout. Deal totals 3 years, $29.75 million guaranteed.

Craig Counsell has officially resigned, and he'll be coming in later this week for his physical. Is deal is a straight one year pact, without the option many thought it would take to get done. He'll receive a $2.1 million base pay with $500k in incentives based on games played and starts. Forgoing any injury to a starter he is still likely to make at least half of the incentives.

Also, the Claudio Vargas deal that has been in the works for over a week now is finally done. No word on the money, but Claudio should be in early next week for the physical.



So now the big story. What will the Brewers pitching staff look like next season? GM Doug Melvin has said that the Brewers will not be pursuing any more big free agents, except of course for Mark Mulder who will throw for the Brewers in January and is expected to take a minor league deal. So pending any trades (which may still happen) this is what we have.

Starters:
Gallardo (100% lock)
Wolf (100% lock)
Parra (Melvin said likely lock)
Bush (Seems likely after arbitration offer)
Suppan (may see a trade or release, or a move to long relief)
Narveson (doubtful, but nice September in '09 may have him competing)
Burns (will be AAA security)
Halama (AAA security)

Relievers
Hoffman, Closer (100%)
Coffey, Setup (100%)
Hawkins, Setup (100%)
Stetter, Lefty (100%)
Vargas, Middle (near 100%)
Villanueva, Long Man (likely after McClung's non-tendering)
Lofgren, 2nd Lefty (good shot being Rule 5 pick)
Smith, Middle (doubtful but may compete, AAA)
Butler, Middle (doubtful, probably want more season, may compete)
Riske, Middle (0%, DL to start, may come back)
Narveson, Swing Man/Lefty (may go to pen and spot start)
Dillard, Middle (doubtful but may compete, AAA)
Axford, Middle (doubtful, more seasoning, might compete)

With that in order the rotation I see as of this second is: Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Bush, Suppan. With the bullpen shaping out from top to bottom as: Hoffman, Coffey, Hawkins, Stetter, Villanueva, Vargas, and then Lofgren or Narveson filling out the last spot. I'm sure it will be a competition, but Narveson has options left and it may be a better idea to let him start in AAA then have to offer Lofgren back to Cleveland.

I think Dave Bush will bounce back, as he has been nothing but dependable for the last 4 years and his injury may have played a large role in his struggles last year. Also, I can't imagine Suppan coming in out of the 'pen. I'm hoping he gives us 180 innings with an ERA of 5.00. As for in the bullpen, that will probably be more of a battle in Spring Training. If Lofgren looks really bad I'm sure the Crew will let him go, there are plenty of other options. I also see Narveson getting the true long man spot, as I think Villanueva is most valuable as a middle reliever who can throw 2 or 3 innings. Narveson threw well in relief and made some nice starts last season. I think both Butler and Axford have futures, but I think the front office feels the same way, and would prefer to get them some more time in the minors. Some of these guys could be great projects for new pitching coach Rick Peterson, who is apparently the King of Mechanics. Burns and Halama provide some decent options in AAA in case of injury or a Suppan explosion. Also, a pick up of Mark Mulder could be another option for the rotation, and if he is signed on a minor league deal (as is likely) he can start the year in the minors.

I wonder if a trade isn't swung yet. Part of me feels like Suppan has some kind of value. Don't get be wrong the Brewers would have to eat most of the money (probably 10.5 of the 12.5 million dollars owed this year) but to even clear up 2 million dollars and the roster spot would be beneficial.

So realistic predictions might put out something like Gallardo with a 3.5o, Wolf with a 4.00, Bush a 4.50 and both Suppan and Parra with a 5.00 ERA. If they all have the same innings this would average out to a 4.40 rotation ERA (well more than a run better than last season). The 'pen should be solid, and the Brewers should still score some runs.... Hmm Hmm Hmmmm. I wonder how things will shake out.

Enough for now. Brew Up.



P.S. Mike Cameron agreed to a two year $15.5 million deal with Boston. Probably for the best we let him go. But good for Mike. I made the point before that Cam' is only 35 home runs and 4 stolen bases from the 300 plateau in each category. If he could reach both he would become only the ninth player ever to do so. Even if Mike puts up sub career average numbers, after the end of this contract he would rather easily have a career line of 2000 games, 1100 runs, 1800 hits, 400 doubles, 300 HRs, 1000 RBIs, and 300 SB. Along with his 3 gold gloves and and All-Star appearance I think that makes Mike a Hall of Famer. I've also previously argued for a Jason Kendall HoF bid.

Seriously enough though now. Brew Up.