So, I'm still standing by my initial prediction that Milwaukee will not sign free agent shortstop Jose Reyes, MLB Trade Rumors does, and now Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) of ESPN thinks so too. He recently tweeted that he was unsure of were Reyes would land, but that Milwaukee would be a great fit, and that we have the money.
I agree on the "fit" part, whether or not we have the money remains to be seen. Payroll for 2012 has been estimated giving us under $10 million to spend, not enough for Reyes. It is possible we shed payroll via trades or non tenders (perhaps McGehee, or Kottaras, or others) but some revamping work still needs to be done to the bullpen, so at least $3 million should be held onto for that... Tom Hardricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal seems to share my sentiments, and whether or not this is true, I always seem to trust beat writers more than national ones, especially when gauging what a team is trying to do...
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free agents. Show all posts
Monday, November 7, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Top Free Agents
Hey everyone.
Recently the awesome blog MLBTradeRumors.com did an article outlining their Top 50 free agents of the 2012 off season and offered their opinion on where these players will land.
The Brewers were involved in a total of two. The first obviously being Fielder (ranked 2nd), who is predicted to head over to Seattle. The next being Jose Reyes (ranked 3rd overall), who is predicted to sign with Milwaukee.
^^Link to the Full Article^^
As much as I would love for Milwaukee to sign a player like Reyes (and by like him, I mean an awesome player), I just don't think it's going to happen. Work that Melvin has interest in bring back the perpetual disapointment Betancourt has really made me feel like that will happen, probably for something like 1 year, $2-$3 million.
However I do think we will make a signing (or two or three even) someway farther down the list.
If a shortstop other than Betancourt is to be signed I think it is much more likely it is much more likely to be somebody like Jamey Carroll, or perhaps Rafael Furcal. Personally, I'm most intrigued by Carroll, a guy with a career OBP of over .345.
Beyond that, do to the mass exodus of almost everyone from our bullpen, I see a signing there happening. K-Rod, Hawkins, and Saito are all free agents, and all three played a fairly central role to the team, especially down the stretch. Now, with what is likely to be a decrease in offensive production (though I do think it will be less than some people fear) I really feel like GM Doug Melvin will sign some depth.
I predict a resigning of either Hawkins or Saito, almost for sure. There is some possibility of bringing back both, but I'm not sure you want to risk of two old men anchoring your late innings group. There could be somebody like Frank Francisco, who's put a decent string of years together, most recently with the Blue Jays. Also, Melvin has shown before that he's willing to take a chance on a reliever, and Jonathan Broxton could be that man here. I really doubt somebody offers him a closers roll after two poor, and one injury riddled seasons. However a nice incentive laden deal could probably get him. If Broxton returns to even close to his 2009 form he would be a bargain.
So, my free agent predictions for the Brewers will be Jamey Carroll, Latroy Hawkins, and Jonathan Broxton.
Recently the awesome blog MLBTradeRumors.com did an article outlining their Top 50 free agents of the 2012 off season and offered their opinion on where these players will land.
The Brewers were involved in a total of two. The first obviously being Fielder (ranked 2nd), who is predicted to head over to Seattle. The next being Jose Reyes (ranked 3rd overall), who is predicted to sign with Milwaukee.
^^Link to the Full Article^^
As much as I would love for Milwaukee to sign a player like Reyes (and by like him, I mean an awesome player), I just don't think it's going to happen. Work that Melvin has interest in bring back the perpetual disapointment Betancourt has really made me feel like that will happen, probably for something like 1 year, $2-$3 million.
However I do think we will make a signing (or two or three even) someway farther down the list.
If a shortstop other than Betancourt is to be signed I think it is much more likely it is much more likely to be somebody like Jamey Carroll, or perhaps Rafael Furcal. Personally, I'm most intrigued by Carroll, a guy with a career OBP of over .345.
Beyond that, do to the mass exodus of almost everyone from our bullpen, I see a signing there happening. K-Rod, Hawkins, and Saito are all free agents, and all three played a fairly central role to the team, especially down the stretch. Now, with what is likely to be a decrease in offensive production (though I do think it will be less than some people fear) I really feel like GM Doug Melvin will sign some depth.
I predict a resigning of either Hawkins or Saito, almost for sure. There is some possibility of bringing back both, but I'm not sure you want to risk of two old men anchoring your late innings group. There could be somebody like Frank Francisco, who's put a decent string of years together, most recently with the Blue Jays. Also, Melvin has shown before that he's willing to take a chance on a reliever, and Jonathan Broxton could be that man here. I really doubt somebody offers him a closers roll after two poor, and one injury riddled seasons. However a nice incentive laden deal could probably get him. If Broxton returns to even close to his 2009 form he would be a bargain.
So, my free agent predictions for the Brewers will be Jamey Carroll, Latroy Hawkins, and Jonathan Broxton.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Brewers and Washburn?
Sorry about the lack of articles, been far too busy lately... Here is another idea floating around.
The Brewers will be players for Jarrod Washburn.
Tom Hardicourt over at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had some interesting points on this one.
Washburn is a Wisconsin native, maybe interested in returning home. The Brewers apparently made a large effort to acquire him this year at the trade deadline. Brewers want two arms, likely one from free agency and one via a trade.
There are of course plenty of issues. Washburn is a Scott Boras client. So is Fielder and GM Doug Melvin has worked with him before, but still, Boras is known to be an elite, money grabbing agent. Jarrod had a nice season this year. An ERA under 3 in 20 starts for the Mariners. Not so much after his trade to Detroit though... He's a ground ball pitcher, meaning the defense needs to be (and ours hasn't been) good. He is getting old. Some people will say this looks like a left-handed Jeff Suppan.
What will it take to get him? This off season isn't exactly teaming with awesome free agent starters, so Washburn might be up there. Even though he's old you have to imagine looking for something like a 3 year deal. Maybe pushing 7-8 million a year... Unless he is willing to sign in the 4-6 range/year for two years I hope this one doesn't happen. Hopefully Melvin has learned from the Suppan nightmare and won't go so long (and much) on an aged pitching coming off a good season.
I personally don't see it happening. Though I typically say that for just about every trade or signing involving the Brewers... I'm also going to guess he signs for something like 3 years 19 million.
It for now. Have fun watching Pedro throw game 2 tonight. Brew Up.
The Brewers will be players for Jarrod Washburn.
Tom Hardicourt over at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had some interesting points on this one.
Washburn is a Wisconsin native, maybe interested in returning home. The Brewers apparently made a large effort to acquire him this year at the trade deadline. Brewers want two arms, likely one from free agency and one via a trade.
There are of course plenty of issues. Washburn is a Scott Boras client. So is Fielder and GM Doug Melvin has worked with him before, but still, Boras is known to be an elite, money grabbing agent. Jarrod had a nice season this year. An ERA under 3 in 20 starts for the Mariners. Not so much after his trade to Detroit though... He's a ground ball pitcher, meaning the defense needs to be (and ours hasn't been) good. He is getting old. Some people will say this looks like a left-handed Jeff Suppan.
What will it take to get him? This off season isn't exactly teaming with awesome free agent starters, so Washburn might be up there. Even though he's old you have to imagine looking for something like a 3 year deal. Maybe pushing 7-8 million a year... Unless he is willing to sign in the 4-6 range/year for two years I hope this one doesn't happen. Hopefully Melvin has learned from the Suppan nightmare and won't go so long (and much) on an aged pitching coming off a good season.
I personally don't see it happening. Though I typically say that for just about every trade or signing involving the Brewers... I'm also going to guess he signs for something like 3 years 19 million.
It for now. Have fun watching Pedro throw game 2 tonight. Brew Up.
Friday, October 16, 2009
2010 Options
Hello everyone,
So the Brewers have two options to decide on for 2010. A $3.7 million club option for reliever David Weathers ($400k buyout), and a $6.5 million mutual option with starter Braden Looper ($1m buyout).
Weathers-Weathers owns a 4.25 career ERA in approximately 59 seasons in the big leagues. Over the last 5 years or so Weathers has be good for a 3.2-3.9 ERA with 62-77 IP. After a trade from the Reds last year Weathers did not impress in Milwaukee, with a 4.88 in 24ip, with 11bb and only 10k. These aren't very Weathers like numbers, and we should see those settle back near 4. I think the Brewers should pick this one up. I guess GM Doug Melvin will have a better read on the free agent market, but I like having another experience arm in the 'pen, and other than Hoffman, Brewers are a bit thin on experience. Barring some sort of trade or FA signing, I think that this would be the right choice. I will admit this is a bit controversial, and I really have no idea what Melvin will do.
Looper-I have seen so many differing opinions on this one. The first thing I read about it stated that "of course" the Brewers would pick up this option... I was like "Really? Of Course?" The real funny part is the second thing I read said there was "no way" the Brewers should grab this. At first I supported this one, like I supported the original Looper deal, but the front office has said that it wants to go after 2 arms this off season, that means two arms have to go, and Looper is at the top of that list (let's be serious Suppan isn't going anywhere). Maybe after his knee surgery he wouldn't give up the most homers in the MLB again, but still, he's probably going to run near a ERA of 5, and for the raise to 6.5m I'm against it. Hopefully we can get somebody like Washburn for less, or a Sheets like guy on an incentive laden deal. I wouldn't be shocked if this was picked up, we were sorely lacking on pitchers this year, but I think it'd be a waste of money, and we may as well roll our dice on somebody else than on another year of 30+ HR allowed. If the Crew does pick this up, I don't see Looper turning down his half of the deal. Even with a thin SP free agent market, after a poor season I just don't see Braden getting more than 4-5 again. We'll be on the hook for a $1 million buy out.
It for now, Arb talk still pending.
Have fun with the start of the ALCS. Brew Up.
So the Brewers have two options to decide on for 2010. A $3.7 million club option for reliever David Weathers ($400k buyout), and a $6.5 million mutual option with starter Braden Looper ($1m buyout).
Weathers-Weathers owns a 4.25 career ERA in approximately 59 seasons in the big leagues. Over the last 5 years or so Weathers has be good for a 3.2-3.9 ERA with 62-77 IP. After a trade from the Reds last year Weathers did not impress in Milwaukee, with a 4.88 in 24ip, with 11bb and only 10k. These aren't very Weathers like numbers, and we should see those settle back near 4. I think the Brewers should pick this one up. I guess GM Doug Melvin will have a better read on the free agent market, but I like having another experience arm in the 'pen, and other than Hoffman, Brewers are a bit thin on experience. Barring some sort of trade or FA signing, I think that this would be the right choice. I will admit this is a bit controversial, and I really have no idea what Melvin will do.
Looper-I have seen so many differing opinions on this one. The first thing I read about it stated that "of course" the Brewers would pick up this option... I was like "Really? Of Course?" The real funny part is the second thing I read said there was "no way" the Brewers should grab this. At first I supported this one, like I supported the original Looper deal, but the front office has said that it wants to go after 2 arms this off season, that means two arms have to go, and Looper is at the top of that list (let's be serious Suppan isn't going anywhere). Maybe after his knee surgery he wouldn't give up the most homers in the MLB again, but still, he's probably going to run near a ERA of 5, and for the raise to 6.5m I'm against it. Hopefully we can get somebody like Washburn for less, or a Sheets like guy on an incentive laden deal. I wouldn't be shocked if this was picked up, we were sorely lacking on pitchers this year, but I think it'd be a waste of money, and we may as well roll our dice on somebody else than on another year of 30+ HR allowed. If the Crew does pick this up, I don't see Looper turning down his half of the deal. Even with a thin SP free agent market, after a poor season I just don't see Braden getting more than 4-5 again. We'll be on the hook for a $1 million buy out.
It for now, Arb talk still pending.
Have fun with the start of the ALCS. Brew Up.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
2009 Salaries, 2010 Projected
Hey everyone,
Quick rundown of what everybody made in 2009, and what is owed in 2010. This isn't exact obviously with trades and what not, but is generally pretty close.
(Salary in millions of dollars)
Position Name '09 Salary 2010 Salary
SP Suppan 12.75 12.75
CF Cameron 10 FA
3B Hall 6.925 7.15 (Seattle is paying 1.375)
CP Hoffman 6 7.5
C Kendall 5 FA
SP Looper 4.75 6.5 option 1 buyout
SS Hardy 4.65 ARB
RP Riske 4.25 4.5
RF Hart 3.25 ARB
SP Bush 4 ARB
2B Weeks 2.45 ARB
RP McClung 1.6625 ARB
LF Braun .745 1
INF Counsell 1 FA
RP Julio .95 (Released)
RP Coffey .8 ARB
RP Villanueva .477 ARB
SP Parra .426 .426+
C Rivera .415 ARB
SP Gallardo .414 .414+
RP Stetter .4075 .4075+
RP DiFelice .403 .403+
3B McGehee .400 .400+
Midseason Acquisitions
2B Lopez 3.5 FA
RP Weathers 3.5 3.7 option .4 buyout
OF Gerut 1.775 ARB
With assorted other rookies and whatnot on the books, along with portions of signing bonuses being doled out, opening day payroll 2009 was $80m+.
--Here is an explanation of contracts for those of you who don't know--
Players with less than 4 years of service time have contracts decided on by the club. The players listed with a "+" in there '10 column have two or less years of service, and assuming they do not sign a long term deal, will make only marginally more money.
Now players with 4-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. This means that unless a salary can be agreed upon my player and team figures will be exchanged and a court will choose one of those two figures. Since Melvin has been GM no arbitration cases have gone to court. There are some players in this service range who have salaries listed, this is because they have signed long term (i.e. Braun, Fielder). Players entering their first arbitration year are typically due large raises (Fielder got about $6.5m more) because they are going from team control to market fairness levels. During these years players may be non-tendered, or simply not offered a contract. If this is done they are free agents and may sign with any team for any amount of money. Players who were making lots of money and then had some down seasons may be non tendered as arbitration allows only a 20% pay cut at most.
Players past 6 years of service time are no longer under team control if they do not have a contract. However, the team they are leaving still has the right to offer the player arbitration. If the player declines they become free agents, if they accept the process is the same as other arbitration eligible players. The tricky part that comes in is that depending on the quality of the player, then can be designated as a type A or B player (most are nothing at all). These designations give draft picks to the team the player leaves; but, the former team only gets the draft picks if they offer the player arbitration. Type A gives the new signing teams 1st or 2nd (depending on standings) round pick to the former team, plus an extra supplemental round pick (between round 1 and 2); a type B is just rewarded the supplemental round pick, with no penalty to the new team. It can be risky to offer players arbitration, as you may end up with paying more salary than you want, or too many players, however it is risked because teams want the extra draft picks.
--End way too long contract system explanation--
Oh man that was long.
The only Brewers free agents who are worthy of a ranking is Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez, who both look to be type B.
-Cameron will not be offered arbitration, he is currently making $10m, and would get at least a small raise. Way too much money. He has said he would like to come back, and implied that he would take a discount. Maybe not a bad idea as #1 CF prospect for the Brewers in Lorenzo Cain, who is looking like he'll need at least one more season in AAA. If we can resign Cam to maybe something in the 4-5 million range I would be accepting. He still plays plus defense, and can be counted on for .250 avg and 20+hrs.
-Lopez is more interesting. GM Doug Melvin recently reiterated that Rickie Weeks is the Brewers second basemen. However Lopez was signed last year for a reasonable 3.5m, and is coming off of a career season (.310 avg). Seems like the Brewers will take this one up, as I really doubt Lopez would except the offer, and the Crew would come away with an extra pick. But, as always when offering arbitration you need to think of both possibilities. If accepted you get a .300 switch hitter for probably under 5m who can play 2B and SS (though not real well). Picks this deal up.
Because this post is so super long I will come back with a discussion of arbitration eligible players later. I will try to repost some important things, like total salary numbers in every discussion.
That's all for now. I'm spoiling everyone with how much I'm writing. Don't get to used to it, I may actually have something important to do in the future (though probably not).
Brew Up.
Quick rundown of what everybody made in 2009, and what is owed in 2010. This isn't exact obviously with trades and what not, but is generally pretty close.
(Salary in millions of dollars)
Position Name '09 Salary 2010 Salary
SP Suppan 12.75 12.75
CF Cameron 10 FA
3B Hall 6.925 7.15 (Seattle is paying 1.375)
CP Hoffman 6 7.5
C Kendall 5 FA
SP Looper 4.75 6.5 option 1 buyout
SS Hardy 4.65 ARB
RP Riske 4.25 4.5
RF Hart 3.25 ARB
SP Bush 4 ARB
2B Weeks 2.45 ARB
RP McClung 1.6625 ARB
LF Braun .745 1
INF Counsell 1 FA
RP Julio .95 (Released)
RP Coffey .8 ARB
RP Villanueva .477 ARB
SP Parra .426 .426+
C Rivera .415 ARB
SP Gallardo .414 .414+
RP Stetter .4075 .4075+
RP DiFelice .403 .403+
3B McGehee .400 .400+
Midseason Acquisitions
2B Lopez 3.5 FA
RP Weathers 3.5 3.7 option .4 buyout
OF Gerut 1.775 ARB
With assorted other rookies and whatnot on the books, along with portions of signing bonuses being doled out, opening day payroll 2009 was $80m+.
--Here is an explanation of contracts for those of you who don't know--
Players with less than 4 years of service time have contracts decided on by the club. The players listed with a "+" in there '10 column have two or less years of service, and assuming they do not sign a long term deal, will make only marginally more money.
Now players with 4-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. This means that unless a salary can be agreed upon my player and team figures will be exchanged and a court will choose one of those two figures. Since Melvin has been GM no arbitration cases have gone to court. There are some players in this service range who have salaries listed, this is because they have signed long term (i.e. Braun, Fielder). Players entering their first arbitration year are typically due large raises (Fielder got about $6.5m more) because they are going from team control to market fairness levels. During these years players may be non-tendered, or simply not offered a contract. If this is done they are free agents and may sign with any team for any amount of money. Players who were making lots of money and then had some down seasons may be non tendered as arbitration allows only a 20% pay cut at most.
Players past 6 years of service time are no longer under team control if they do not have a contract. However, the team they are leaving still has the right to offer the player arbitration. If the player declines they become free agents, if they accept the process is the same as other arbitration eligible players. The tricky part that comes in is that depending on the quality of the player, then can be designated as a type A or B player (most are nothing at all). These designations give draft picks to the team the player leaves; but, the former team only gets the draft picks if they offer the player arbitration. Type A gives the new signing teams 1st or 2nd (depending on standings) round pick to the former team, plus an extra supplemental round pick (between round 1 and 2); a type B is just rewarded the supplemental round pick, with no penalty to the new team. It can be risky to offer players arbitration, as you may end up with paying more salary than you want, or too many players, however it is risked because teams want the extra draft picks.
--End way too long contract system explanation--
Oh man that was long.
The only Brewers free agents who are worthy of a ranking is Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez, who both look to be type B.
-Cameron will not be offered arbitration, he is currently making $10m, and would get at least a small raise. Way too much money. He has said he would like to come back, and implied that he would take a discount. Maybe not a bad idea as #1 CF prospect for the Brewers in Lorenzo Cain, who is looking like he'll need at least one more season in AAA. If we can resign Cam to maybe something in the 4-5 million range I would be accepting. He still plays plus defense, and can be counted on for .250 avg and 20+hrs.
-Lopez is more interesting. GM Doug Melvin recently reiterated that Rickie Weeks is the Brewers second basemen. However Lopez was signed last year for a reasonable 3.5m, and is coming off of a career season (.310 avg). Seems like the Brewers will take this one up, as I really doubt Lopez would except the offer, and the Crew would come away with an extra pick. But, as always when offering arbitration you need to think of both possibilities. If accepted you get a .300 switch hitter for probably under 5m who can play 2B and SS (though not real well). Picks this deal up.
Because this post is so super long I will come back with a discussion of arbitration eligible players later. I will try to repost some important things, like total salary numbers in every discussion.
That's all for now. I'm spoiling everyone with how much I'm writing. Don't get to used to it, I may actually have something important to do in the future (though probably not).
Brew Up.
Upcoming Free Agents, Arbitration Cases
Hey everyone,
Lets just start out with a look at some Brewers contract issues.
Players that are now entering free agency are:
CF Mike Cameron
OF Frank Catalanotto
INF Craig Counsell
C Jason Kendall
OF Corey Patterson
2B Felipe Lopez
Options:
SP Braden Looper-$6.5m mutual (both sides must exercise) $1m buyout
RP David Weathers-$3.7m club option $400k buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players:
SP Dave Bush
RP Todd Coffey
OF Jody Gerut
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Corey Hart
RHP Seth McClung
C Mike Rivera (first time)*
RHP Carlos Villanueva (first time)*
2B Rickie Weeks
* first time arbitration eligible players are most likely to see a large salary increase.
I want to go through and list salaries, then give some ideas about what kind of numbers we might see for the arbitration guys, and some ideas for the free agents/options we have. Hopefully I can get to that later today.
Chilly outside, baseball warms my heart. Brew up.
Lets just start out with a look at some Brewers contract issues.
Players that are now entering free agency are:
CF Mike Cameron
OF Frank Catalanotto
INF Craig Counsell
C Jason Kendall
OF Corey Patterson
2B Felipe Lopez
Options:
SP Braden Looper-$6.5m mutual (both sides must exercise) $1m buyout
RP David Weathers-$3.7m club option $400k buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players:
SP Dave Bush
RP Todd Coffey
OF Jody Gerut
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Corey Hart
RHP Seth McClung
C Mike Rivera (first time)*
RHP Carlos Villanueva (first time)*
2B Rickie Weeks
* first time arbitration eligible players are most likely to see a large salary increase.
I want to go through and list salaries, then give some ideas about what kind of numbers we might see for the arbitration guys, and some ideas for the free agents/options we have. Hopefully I can get to that later today.
Chilly outside, baseball warms my heart. Brew up.
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